On the morning of August 1, 2016 a complex of thunderstorms formed across portions of northern and central Missouri. These storms trained over the same area for several hours resulting in 4 to 7 inches of rain across much of the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
On the morning of August 1, 2016 a complex of thunderstorms formed across portions of northern and central Missouri. These storms trained over the same area for several hours resulting in 4 to 7 inches of rain across much of the area. Some locations saw well over 8 inches of rain over a few hour period on the morning of August 1. While most of the flooding was minor, resulting in some road closures, there was some structural damage as a result of this flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 10:18 PM CST, 2 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1118 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 .Update... Issued at 1113 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Tonight's MCS has developed close to where short-range models indicated. Have increased PoPs and QPF to capture this. While the threat of severe storms is low, some initial updrafts have surged to or exceeded warning thresholds of 50 dbz to 39K feet. But the lack of shear has led to updrafts decreasing in intensity as quickly as they increased. The bigger issue looks to be the potential for flash flooding. With precipitable water values approaching and possibly exceeding 2" and storm motions that are training over each other. && .Discussion... Issued at 237 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Morning showers and thunderstorms are winding down gradually across the area, likely in response to the overnight low level jet subsiding. A few showers linger across the area, but generally expect this activity to grind to a halt through the afternoon. Temperatures have struggled to meet Max T expectations, due to lingering thick cloud cover and off-n-on rain. Have lowered Sunday afternoon/evening Max T forecast to account for this lingering cloud cover. With the clearing just off to the west in NE Kansas, it's conceivable that the back edge of the cloud cover could reach the KC area before daytime heating subsides, so there could still be a quick upshoot of temperature across the western half of the forecast area. That being said, the upshoot of temperature should still stay below morning Max T expectations. Tonight strong and fairly deep isentropic lift along the 310K and 315K thetaE surfaces will likely yield another round of thunderstorm activity across northern Missouri. The best chances for rain will be north of Interstate 70, mainly along and north of the HWY 36 corridor, but there is a chance that these thunderstorms will come as far south as the KC metro and points along Interstate 70. Areas south of Interstate 70 are less likely to see any of these overnight showers and thunderstorms. This ushers in the heat wave that is expected for the majority of the upcoming week. The mid level pattern is strongly suggestive of a strong ridge building into the central Plains and affecting the local areas with warm and clear days. Absent any clear boundaries to form on, thunderstorm chances will be minimal through the week, with perhaps the best chances for rain being across northern Missouri, closer to the faster mid level westerly flow. Areas across central and southern Missouri could miss out on much rain through the week absent any unforeseen mesoscale processes. Since there is a decent chance of nocturnal convection across Iowa on one or many of the next several nights, there is always the chance for an outflow boundary to reach into northern Missouri, bringing relief from the otherwise prolonged heat as well as a few showers and thunderstorms. By late in the week the ridge flattens out as a northern Plains trough rolls through the area. This will also send a boundary plunging southward into northern and perhaps central Missouri for the late part of the week, into the weekend. As of now this boundary is expected to hang up generally along the MO River/I-70 and could bring limited relief to the KC area and points south of I-70. It could however be a focus for thunderstorm activity. Given the uncertainty of how that time period will play out will avoid any details about rainfall amounts. Have forgone heat warning/advisory for the time being, considering generally marginal heat advisory criteria in the going forecast. So, with further uncertainty regarding nightly/daily cloud cover and any boundaries that might be in play, have opted to let the next shift have a look at the conditions before issuing any official notification of the heat this week. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1108 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 Tonight's thunderstorm complex seems to have revealed itself in the last hour with storms rapidly developing east of the terminals. It seems likely that the bulk of this activity will remain east of the terminals as just above the surface feed into it from the southwest. Given this, have continued with just a VCTS mention through late Monday morning. So VFR conditions look likely given the anticipation that storms should mainly stay east of the terminals. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...None. MO...None. && Update...CDB Discussion...Leighton Aviation...CDB
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 453 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-011000- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS- ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER- HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON- CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON- RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS- COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 453 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KS AND FAR WESTERN MO. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102 TO 107 EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
105 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016
MOZ013-014-010630-
DE KALB MO-DAVIESS MO-
105 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DAVIESS AND NORTHEASTERN
DEKALB COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...
AT 105 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PATTONSBURG...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAYSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.
NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GALLATIN...PATTONSBURG...WINSTON...ALTAMONT...JAMESON...WEATHERBY AND
SANTA ROSA.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 62 AND
75.
LAT...LON 4004 9384 3979 9400 3987 9422 3992 9434
4004 9432 4004 9424 4003 9422 4005 9422
TIME...MOT...LOC 0605Z 287DEG 19KT 3999 9422
HAWBLITZELThe Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 96 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:46 UTC.
20 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Highway 65 was partially closed due to running water over the highway from heavy rain.
Flash flooding washed out a basement, causing a house to come off the foundation. Cost of this damage is unknown.
During the long duration heavy rain event across Carroll County several area roads flooded. In the city of Carrolton a few businesses had water running up, and causing water to move into these businesses. The extent or cost of the damage is unknown.
Water was running over Highway 65 north of Sedalia.
Highway 50 was closed at LaMonte due to high water. A water rescue of a stranded motorist ensued.
Several roads across western and southern Saline County were impassible due to running water, as a result of heavy rain.
Route A near Shoal Creek was closed due to flash flooding.
Route B near Bryson Road was flooded due to heavy rain.
Route T near Heaths Creek was flooding due to heavy rain.
Route M closed due to flooding near Lick Fork.
Route UU was closed due to flooding near Big Muddy Creek.
Route B near Hickory Creek was closed due to flooding.
Road 125 was close near Davis Creek due to flooding.
Highway 127 near Salt Pond creek was closed due to flooding.
Route D was closed near Shoal Creek due to flooding.
Route Y was closed for flash flooding.
Highway N near Mud Creek was closed due to flash flooding.
Highway 127 as closed near the South Fork of the Blackwater River due to flooding.
Route VV near Davis Creek was closed due to flooding.
Route D was closed near the South Fork of the Blackwater River, due to flash flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 658069, 658071, 658072, 658086, 658088, 658070, 658688, 658090, 658091, 658694, 658695, 658696, 658699, 658700, 658701, 658093, 658702, 658094, 658703, 658095.