Thunderstorms with damaging winds moved across parts of southeast Minnesota during the afternoon of August 18th. Trees were damaged or blown down from the storms in Austin (Mower County) east to Rushford (Fillmore County).
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ARX wrote it up.
Thunderstorms with damaging winds moved across parts of southeast Minnesota during the afternoon of August 18th. Trees were damaged or blown down from the storms in Austin (Mower County) east to Rushford (Fillmore County). 60 to 65 mph wind gusts were estimated to have occurred in Hayfield (Dodge County), Rock Dell (Olmsted County) and Stewartville (Olmsted County) while a spotter measured a wind gust of 73 mph at the Preston airport (Fillmore County).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 18, 1:41 PM CST, 2 hours 2 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 241 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 241 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 Surface map this afternoon has a warm front extending from near Sioux Falls SD through Waterloo IA and then into northwestern IL. Increasing moisture transport into/over the warm front aided by an approaching mid-level trough, per latest water vapor loop, was producing scattered thunderstorms across southern/central MN. Main concern through Friday night is obviously on thunderstorm chances and severe/localized heavy rain threat. Going into this evening/overnight...moisture transport continues to increase over the warm front as it moves slowly northward to near I- 90 by pre-dawn hours. This is expected to fuel thunderstorms with highest chances along/north of I-90. Could see an isolated strong to severe storm threat with the main threat being wind. Precipitable waters in the 1.5 to 1.8 range overnight, so could see some concentrated/localized heavier rainfall with some of the storms. Appears to be a lull in the moisture transport among the various models in the 09-15z time frame...so should see a corresponding lull in showers and thunderstorms. Focus then turns to incoming cold front Friday afternoon/night with 0-3km mucape pool of 3500-5500J/kg in place along/south of I-94. 0- 3km bulk shear still a bit meager in the 20-maybe 35kt range. Still thinking damaging wind would be the main severe threat if some linear organization can be attained. Also will continue to see that threat of localized/concentrated heavier rainfall with some of the storms. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 241 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 For Saturday into Saturday night...still seeing some differences among the deterministic models on amount of intensification of surface low moving northeast across the area. NAM has been consistently the deepest with the low and steers heavier deformation area rain more from east central MN into northwest WI. The GFS/ECMWF/GEM have a more open wave low and resultant deformation rain is light but more focused over our southeast MN into west central/north central WI area. Consensus of all the models brings a broad 1-2 inches of rainfall across our area from tonight through Saturday. Have to believe there will be some localized higher amounts given the higher precipitable water amount/humid airmass in place. As such, went with an ESF/Hydrologic Outlook with concern for for some flooding the next few days until this low exits the area. Autumn-like conditions in store for Sunday behind the departing low and as cool Canadian high pressure builds into the region. Could still see a few lingering/isolated showers across central WI under the deeper cyclonic flow aloft. Otherwise...plan on high temperatures in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Looks dry through Tuesday with a slow warming trend through Tuesday as that high pressure drifts eastward into the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley regions. Highs on Monday look to be in the 70s and in the upper 70s/lower 80s Tuesday. Shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday through Thursday as a mid-level trough/surface cold front pushes into the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 241 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 Latest NAM/GFS/ECMWF still showing precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range tonight through Saturday. However...models still displaying differences in placement of convection and heavier rainfall tracks through period. At this time...looks like the forecast will likely see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall through the period...with locally 2 to 4 inches. If storms entrain over any given area either tonight or Friday evening/night...flooding will be possible. However...confidence remains low for any flooding potential. && .ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...SHEA HYDROLOGY...DAS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 300 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 IAZ008>011-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-191100- MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA- MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON- 300 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GOING INTO THE EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. A FEW WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 5PM AND 9PM. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED. IAZ018-019-029-030-WIZ041>044-053>055-061-191100- FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-ADAMS- VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT- 300 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...AFTER 6PM. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD REFORM LATE TONIGHT AS WELL WITH A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WIND AND HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW GROUPS MIGHT BE NEEDED IF STRONGER STORMS MOVE IN EARLY THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED. WIZ017-029-032>034-191100- TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON- 300 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GOING INTO THE EVENING... BUT ANOTHER THREAT EXISTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE ADDITIONAL FLOODING DEVELOPS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED. SHEA
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
357 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016
MNZ086-087-094-095-182230-
DODGE-MOWER-FILLMORE-OLMSTED-
357 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
AT 348 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING INTERSTATE 35 IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS
HAVE A HISTORY OF ISOLATED QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND POCKETS OF
WIND DAMAGE.
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WAS SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THE STORMS WILL MOVE
INTO MOWER AND DODGE COUNTIES JUST AFTER 430 PM...AND CONTINUE
EAST TO ROCHESTER AND PRESTON IN THE 5 TO 6 PM HOUR.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
SEEK SHELTER WHEN THE STORMS APPROACH.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA.
LAT...LON 4420 9304 4419 9233 4411 9232 4411 9230
4350 9207 4351 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 298DEG 35KT 4413 9355 4373 9386
DABThe Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 115 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:45 UTC.
11 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees were blown down in the extreme southwest part of Dodge County west of Hayfield.
Large tree branches were blown down in Mapleview.
A large tree was uprooted in Austin.
An estimated 60 mph wind gust occurred in Hayfield. The wind gust moved a gazebo and blew down a large tree.
Lots of trees were blown down northwest of Spring Valley.
Estimated wind gusts of 60 to 65 mph occurred in Rock Dell.
Quarter sized hail was reported in Cherry Grove.
A 32' x 172' dairy barn was blown down near Racine and another outbuilding was damaged.
An estimated 60 mph wind gust occurred in Stewartville.
Numerous trees were blown down or damaged west of Preston.
A 73 mph wind gust occurred at the Preston airport.
An estimated 65 mph wind gust occurred in Rushford that blew down trees and power lines. Some pea sized hail also occurred.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 654718, 654668, 654709, 654670, 654715, 654710, 654712, 655762, 654711, 654724, 654721, 655761.