NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 3:25 PM EST, 45 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 16, 3:25 PM EST, 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
425 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms anticipated through tonight, some of
which may be strong to severe with heavy downpours, frequent
lightning, gusty winds, and possibly even a tornado. Activity
concludes into Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front drops
south from Canada, moving south of New England by Friday. Warm
weather surges north again Saturday. Another cold front bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms later Sunday through Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
430 pm update...
*/ Highlights...
* Round 1 of storms ongoing, potential severe/tornadic threats
* Round 2 emerging from NY/PA, could be into W New England by 8p
* Round 3 ahead of mid-level energy, around midnight
* Heavy rain and damaging winds the main threat
* A tornado or two possible
* Impacts: downed tree, tree limbs, power lines, urban and poor
drainage flooding
*/ Discussion...
Now...
Warm front continues to lift N/E along and S/W of which buoyancy
is prevalent to allow for shower and thunderstorm development,
some severe with low-level rotation and the possibility of a
tornado. Strong line of thunderstorms developing over PA down into
N VA with accompanying Severe Thunderstorm Watch within the warm-
moist sector. And lastly a developing line of activity across the
OH River Valley ahead of the main stretched mid-level vortex.
What We Know...
Warm front now lifted N along roughly the MA border. Return S flow
pushing surface dewpoints well into the 70s along with SB and ML
CAPEs rising up to 1000-2000 j/kg. Entering the warm-moist sector
with plenty of sunshine, creating a fuel rich environment for any
activity that may develop to the W. Low level lapse rates mixing
out, becoming unstable, while mid-level lapse rates are still poor.
Sub-tropical moisture with high theta-e values and precipitable
waters in excess of 2 inches across the region. Observational
evidence can be seen in the 18z sounding profiles from Upton and
Albany NY.
This beneath a veering wind profile and strong SW flow within the
mid-levels. Effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 kts with similar
values out of the W at 0-6 km. Per 18z upper air profiles from all
stations surrounding S New England, strong veering profile at 0-1
km. Storm relative helicity profiles within the layer of 100-200
m2/s2, also within 0-3. The stronger of profiles exist S/W.
Height falls proceeding beneath H7 as the H85 closed low begins to
take shape over the E Great Lakes. But anticyclonic flow above,
especially H5, continues associated with the Atlantic ridge. Lack
of mid to upper level support with respect to forcing and favorable
venting. Better mid to upper level support exist across the E Great
Lakes region within stronger dynamics and more favorable deep-
layer forcing / jet-coupling with low to mid level convergence.
What We Don't Know...
Expect the warm front to continue to progress N/E along with
present shower and thunderstorm activity. This broadens the window
as to the warm-moist sector into S New England. Focus towards the
line emerging out of PA. Not entirely sure how far E this will
progress into S New England. Initial estimates are for impacts by
8 pm over W/SW portions of S New England, perhaps washing out
further E beneath anti-cyclonic flow and the present situation of
cloud cover and ongoing convection. That is to say perhaps the
most reasonably primed area for continued storm maintenance is
W/SW New England as suggested by both the SREF / NCAR.
Then watching activity ahead of the mid-level vortex over the OH
River Valley on up through the E Great Lakes. Activity pushing
into New England during the 11p - 2a timeframe (3-6z) to which the
Rapid Refresh Ensemble suggest a good chance of convection into NW
MA by midnight (4z). Falling heights throughout much of the column
and some emphasis of forcing, though mid level energy will be
strewn N/E, stretched N of the Atlantic ridge, though slightly
weakened. Lack of daytime heating, it could be perhaps that the
later activity pushes into W New England and then lifts N/E during
the overnight period.
So to clarify, present activity continues to lift N/E. Looking at
two potential waves of showers and thunderstorms into this evening
and through the overnight period. Appears activity concludes behind
the main mid level energy towards Wednesday morning, most of it,
as mentioned, lifting N/E.
Re-iterating some points...
Rainfall...Expect precipitation efficiency given 12z soundings
highlighting freezing levels around H6 (14 kft agl). Ensemble
probabilistics suggest potential rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per
hour with outcomes over N/W MA and CT with WPC highlighting a
slight risk of excessive rainfall. Thus there is a low risk of
flash flooding, but greater confidence of urban, poor-drainage
issues. Low confidence to warrant a flood watch of any type.
Already heavy downpours exhibiting instantaneous rainfall rates
upwards of 4-inches. High KDP from dual-pol indicating efficient
rain producers.
Severe...A SLIGHT risk has been posted by SPC accordingly with 5%
risk of tornadoes. Several mesoscale discussions have been posted
highlighting similar thoughts as to the discussion above. No further
information with respect to watches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday into Wednesday night...
Frontal boundary pushing offshore of S New England behind which
weak mid-level ridging and high pressure prevail. Still mild
around H85 with temperatures around +14C. Thinking quiet weather
along with milder, drier conditions. Highs into the mid to upper
80s as dewpoints fall into the lower 60s, some places perhaps
upper 50s.
Cool, dry trends continue overnight with the expectation for
temperatures to fall as low as the crossover threshold of the
dewpoint during max heating of the day. Antecedent rains, could
be talking interior fog with forecast light winds and radiational
cooling. Won't hit the forecast so hard this go around, allowing
later shifts to take a look at it and get a better handle.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Big Picture...
Subtropical ridge covers the Southern and Western USA while the jet
stream pushes south over the Northern Plains/Great Lakes and
Northeast this weekend and early next week. During the weekend,
Western Canada shortwave digs over the Plains while shortwave ridge
moves offshore over the West Atlantic and builds. Plains shortwave
approaches New England Monday and crosses on Tuesday.
Model upper air contours show divergent results starting Saturday,
while surface patterns show significant differences starting Sunday.
Forecast confidence drops below average at that point. We have used
a blend of model data as a first estimate and adjusted from there.
Details...
Thursday through Saturday...
Weak shortwaves move through the flow across New England Thursday
and Friday. These will push a cold front south into Northern New
England Thursday and then across at least Southeastern New England by
Friday, possibly the whole forecast area. Dynamics will be
marginal at best due to our being under the subsident left
entrance region of the upper jet. Stability parameters are
marginal at best. Totals reach 46-47 in the CT river valley
Thursday and CT Friday. Moisture is limited to a narrow layer
between 700 and 850 mb.
Model qpf shows one area of showers passing offshore to our south
Thursday while showers along the frontal zone move through Northern
New England and Eastern NY. The GGEM shows measurable pcpn over
us on Friday while the other models to our north and west. For now
we will go with a dry forecast Thursday and Friday.
Less certainty with Saturday. The front breaks down and winds should
come around out of the south. But all guidance builds high
pressure surface and aloft and keeps higher density sky cover
suppressed to our south and west. We are following the dry
solution except for slight chance pops in the afternoon west of
the CT river.
Temperatures aloft remain 15-17C, which supports max surface temps
in the mid and upper 80s. Dew points in the low to mid 60s suggests
min temps in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Sunday through Tuesday...
Deepening trough over the Plains/Great Lakes supports surface low
and cold front. This complex moves east during the early week.
Models suggest a pre-frontal trough forming east of the Appalachians
on Sunday and moving to the Hudson Valley by Sunday evening. Best
dynamics, in the form of the right entrance region of the upper jet,
moves into a favorable position for convection Monday
afternoon/night. SBCAPE is limited Sunday, just a few hundred joules
over Western MA and CT. Downdraft CAPE is higher with amounts
reaching 1000-1500 joules. CAPE is broader and stronger Monday with
1000-1500 Joules/Kg. We have chance pops showers/thunder west of
Worcester Sunday, mainly afternoon/evening, and across all areas
Monday.
Data shows lingering pops Tuesday in Eastern MA. This reflects the
range of model solutions which include a dry ECMWF and lingering
showers in the east on the GFS. For now we will go along with chance
pops east on Tuesday, but with low confidence.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...
20z update...
Rest of Today...High confidence.
Mainly VFR. TSRA moving N/E. TEMPO MVFR-IFR impacts with potential
S/SW gusts 20 to 30 kts. Storms may be strong to severe. Main
threats of frequent lightning, damaging winds, possibly a tornado.
Likely VSBY impacts with +RA. Otherwise, SW flow prevailing with
gusts up to 25 kts late.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
TSRA pushing out of PA/NY and the lower Hudson Valley towards 8p.
May erode into the CT River Valley. But greater concern is towards
midnight with possibly another round of SHRA/TSRA ahead of a
sweeping frontal boundary with SW winds ahead backing out of the
W/NW with passage.
Storms could be strong to severe. Likely VSBY impacts with +RA.
TEMPO MVFR-IFR impacts with any TSRA. Activity diminishing after
6z N/E. Otherwise, SW flow continues with gusts up to 30 kts
across the S/E coastal terminals. Winds begin to back out of the W
towards morning.
Wednesday into Wednesday night...Moderate confidence.
VFR during the day. Light winds. Perhaps sea-breezes. Overnight,
light winds continue. Going to have to monitor closely for dense
fog developing across the interior with MVFR-LIFR impacts
possible.
KBOS TAF...E winds turning SE to S through the day, increasing
with time with gusts up to 25 kts. TSRA possible through the
overnight hours. One round through 22z. Perhaps another around
3-6z. May need airport weather warnings accordingly.
KBDL TAF...VCTS through roughly 3z with another round of TSRA
emerging out of NY/PA, and then another out of Upstate NY along
and ahead of a cold front. Storms may be strong to severe. Potential
for damaging winds, frequent lightning, possibly a tornado. TEMPO
MVFR-IFR impacts with TSRA.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Moderate confidence.
Generally VFR each day. Areas of IFR in morning fog. Scattered MVFR
cigs/vsbys in showers/t-storms western MA Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...
430 pm...
S/SE winds will veer SW during the overnight period. Gusts up to
30 kts ahead of a cold front with passage after midnight into the
Wednesday morning hours. Waves building 5 to 7 feet on the S/SE
waters especially.
Prior to cold frontal passage, showers and thunderstorms will be
possible. Greatest confidence across the inner bays and sounds, as
well as all E waters. With any thunderstorms, gale force winds are
possible along with marine weather warnings.
Seas and wind activity diminish into Wednesday as high pressure
builds over the waters.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Moderate confidence.
Winds below 20 knots and seas below 5 feet through the period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Even with somewhat lower dewpoints moving in over the next few
days, low temperatures may be close to or higher than the high
minimum records especially in the urban centers over the next few
nights. Here are the records.
Record high minimum temperatures for August 16...
BOS 77 set in 2002
BDL 76 set in 1938 and 2002
PVD 77 set in 2002
ORH 74 set in 1938
Record high minimum temperatures for August 17...
BOS 78 set in 2002
BDL 73 set in 1938
PVD 75 set in 1944
ORH 71 set in 1955 and 2002
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 PM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ230-236-251.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ250.
&&
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/Sipprell
MARINE...WTB/Sipprell
CLIMATE...WFO BOX Staff