A line of showers and thunderstorms developed early this morning ahead of a cold front and upper level disturbance. While widespread rainfall amounts of half an inch to one inch were generally realized, amounts of three to five inches fell in and around Stanton and Clay City, leading to localized instances of flash flooding.
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The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A line of showers and thunderstorms developed early this morning ahead of a cold front and upper level disturbance. While widespread rainfall amounts of half an inch to one inch were generally realized, amounts of three to five inches fell in and around Stanton and Clay City, leading to localized instances of flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 18, 6:07 AM EST, 13 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 707 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 707 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 Surface low is moving north across the are presently and as this feature shifts north, we are already seeing precipitation band shifting eastward and this progression should continue this morning. Made a few tweaks to pops and weather to account for the current trends. Otherwise, forecast is on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 339 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A cold front continues to slowly work eastward across central Kentucky this morning with a surface low tracking northward along this front, now moving into south central Kentucky. With the low approaching, we have seen an uptick in shower activity and in fact, some better updrafts have developed leading to a few widely isolated storms. This low will continue to track north and east this morning with precipitation continuing to expand in coverage along the front as it moves east. Models continue to creep upward with rainfall from this front and now it looks like most areas could see a half inch to an inch of rainfall, with perhaps some locally higher amounts. Fortunately, rainfall should come over a 3 to 6 hour period and should pose no flooding concerns. This will be some much needed rainfall for the area. As the front moves east this afternoon, clouds may break up a bit back to the west allowing for some localized pockets of instability to develop, so we could see isolated showers and storms develop back to the west this afternoon aided by lingering moisture just behind the frontal boundary. As instability decreases after sunset this evening, activity should dissipate with dry weather spreading back into the area. Lots of questions remain about potential fog/stratus for tonight. Certainly a lot of fog/stratus upstream presently, so it seems reasonable to think this may fill in across the area tonight and models are hinting at this possibility. If skies do clear, with the recent rains and lingering moisture behind the front, we could be looking at some locally dense fog. Certainly a borderline situation right now. Will leave the fog out for now, but dayshift will have to re-evaluate the need for more clouds or fog in tonights forecast. By Monday, any clouds and fog should quickly give way to a nice start to the work week. with highs back into the lower 80s with much lower humidity. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 440 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 The period will start with mostly clear skies resulting from surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley, and high pressure aloft over the south central CONUS ridging northeast over the Ohio Valley. Prevailing westerlies across the northern tier of states will carry a cold front along which will settle southeast and lose identity and momentum as it runs under the upper ridge. This front will be moisture starved and should not be noticed as it arrives locally late Tuesday. High pressure behind the front will pass by to our north, bringing a continuation of fair weather. The upper level ridging will weaken with time late in the week, allowing another cold front to approach from the north. The GFS and ECMWF don't agree on the southward progress of this front, with the GFS bringing it through our area on Saturday, while the ECMWF has it stalling to our north. However, both models show some potential for light precip. Have used only a 20% POP Saturday due to still limited moisture and model disparity. Temperatures through the period will remain above seasonal norms, but be held in check by the periodic weak fronts. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 707 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 A cold front will sweep across eastern Kentucky this morning bringing a period of rain to the area. This rain will bring cigs down to MVFR and perhaps some IFR early this morning. Mainly MVFR will be seen through the day today before cigs lower again tonight as stratus develops over the area. Confidence is increasing that we will see more stratus than fog tonight. Although a stratus build down, could bring some fog onto the ridge tops late tonight. Either way, we will start to trend TAFS towards more stratus tonight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 327 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-191030- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON... MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG... BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN... SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE... PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN... PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN... JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY... PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 327 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. KAS/HAL
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 63 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:17 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Dispatch relayed a report from a citizen of flood waters across Adams Ridge Road just off of Highway 15 in Clay City, making the roadway impassable.
A Kroger employee reported the store parking lot was inundated with water. Nearby ditches and Judy Creek overspilled their banks. Water rose over semi truck wheel wells as approximately three to four feet of water flooded loading dock ramps.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, September 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 650357, 650359.