An anomalous cold upper level system combined with daytime heating sparked a round of thunderstorms during the afternoon on May 4th. One storm over Clinton County produced damaging winds which resulted in downed trees and power outages.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
An anomalous cold upper level system combined with daytime heating sparked a round of thunderstorms during the afternoon on May 4th. One storm over Clinton County produced damaging winds which resulted in downed trees and power outages.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 4, 1:17 PM CST, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 317 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016 The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an anomalous upper-level low across the Great Lakes region. This feature will dig southeast and amplify significantly through the short term period, bringing continued cool and dreary conditions to the Ohio Valley. A strong PV anomaly is diving south into the region his afternoon. The seasonably cold core of this system (500mb temps around -24 to -26C) is combining with just enough surface heating to cause MLCAPEs around 250-500 J/kg. Given freezing levels around 6-8 thousand feet, we will continue to see some small hail out of these showers and scattered thunderstorms. We've already received a few reports of pea-sized hail across southern IN. Don't expect a whole lot of lightning with this activity given the shallow depth of the storms and non-impressive charge separation, but there have been enough strikes to continue with thunder wording. Convection will wane this evening as the sun sets and surface heating is lost. However, guidance is suggestive another PV anomaly will dig southeast through the region late tonight, helping to one again enhance shower coverage. Forecast soundings show moisture saturation will be generally shallow, so will not go overly high with pops. The final wave rotating around the upper-level low will move through mainly areas east of I-65 on Thursday. This should once again enhance shower coverage in the eastern CWA. The western edge is a bit in question, but for now will keep shower mention along/east of I-65. Do think we will see quite a bit of stratocu, especially across the eastern CWA. These clouds combined with steady cold air advection should keep temperatures into the 50s through much of the day. Areas along/west of I-65 may benefit from some late afternoon sunshine attempting to peak through which should push temperatures into the low/mid 60s. Thursday night will finally turn mainly dry as the low shifts to the east. Overnight lows will still be chilly, in the low to mid 40s. .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016 The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will feature an omega block across the CONUS. This regime will slowly break down beginning this weekend as a kicker PV anomaly dives into the Great Lakes region. Therefore, expect a return to a warmer, more convectively active period this weekend into next week. Friday continues to look like the pick day of the next seven. The upper-level low will be far enough east that we should see mainly sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the low/mid 70s as a result. A few sprinkles will be possible late Friday night into early Saturday morning within weak isentropic ascent, but the first part of Saturday is shaping up to be nice. Expect a mix of clouds and sunshine with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s. However, things become a bit more dicey as we head into early Saturday evening and into Saturday night. Guidance has continued to trend a bit stronger with the kicker wave mentioned above, now digging deeper into the Great Lakes region. This results in a further south/quicker push of a surface cold front into southern IN by early Saturday evening. Guidance is suggestive that enough moisture will return ahead of this front to give us ample instability (about 800- 1000 J/kg from the GFS - which is typically underdone at these timeframes). Deep-layer flow will help push 0-6km shear to around 40-45 knots which could foster a few stronger storms pushing in from the north on Saturday evening. This is something we will have to continue to monitor over the next couple of days as timing could certainly change, but those with outdoor plans early Saturday evening into Saturday night along and north of the I-64 corridor should continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Otherwise, the upper-level flow will turn more southwesterly by early next week. This will make for a more active pattern and will keep showers/storms in the forecast Monday, but especially into Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 130 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016 Steady rain was still moving through BWG/LEX as of 1730Z occasionally reducing flight conditions to IFR or MVFR. This line of showers will exit BWG/LEX within the next few hours. Behind the line, a cold front and multiple other boundaries exist which will provide focus for showers and sct storms this afternoon. Due to lower coverage and low confidence in a t-storm hitting a TAF site, will continue VCSH through this evening. A wind shift with the front will occur this afternoon from SW to NW. Winds could also become gusty especially behind the front up to 20-25 mph this afternoon or evening. Tonight VFR conditions should prevail for a good portion of the overnight period. However, low clouds will move back into the region with perhaps some stray showers as well especially toward sunrise. Will include MVFR for tomorrow morning. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && Short Term........KJD Long Term.........KJD Aviation..........AMS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 330 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-051930- ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON- FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT- OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD- FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE- GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN- LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL- CUMBERLAND-CLINTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON... JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY... JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG... BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN... SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON... NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA... TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS... CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE... WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER... RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG... CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN... FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE... EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY 330 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 /230 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG SATURDAY EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY SIZE HAIL FROM STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE. KD
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
410 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
KYZ046-047-054-055-064>066-042045-
WASHINGTON-MERCER-BOYLE-CASEY-GREEN-MARION-TAYLOR-
410 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
MARION...NORTHWESTERN CASEY...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...BOYLE...
NORTHWESTERN GREEN...SOUTHWESTERN MERCER AND TAYLOR COUNTIES...
AT 410 PM EDT/310 PM CDT/...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARRODSBURG TO NEAR
LEBANON TO 8 MILES NORTH OF GREENSBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DANVILLE...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LEBANON...JUNCTION CITY...BRADFORDSVILLE...
WHITE ROSE...PEYTONS STORE...NEW MARKET...PARKSVILLE AND SALLEETOWN.
THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3737 8565 3751 8532 3776 8500 3767 8470
3756 8481 3755 8485 3752 8486 3745 8493
3727 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 285DEG 24KT 3770 8501 3750 8526 3739 8552
RJSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
415 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0413 PM HAIL 2 W SIMPSONVILLE 38.22N 85.38W
05/04/2016 E0.75 INCH SHELBY KY PUBLIC
DIME SIZE HAIL NEAR SIMPSONVILLE.
&&
MRCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
448 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0447 PM HAIL 2 NNW GLASGOW 37.02N 85.93W
05/04/2016 E0.75 INCH BARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT
DIME SIZE HAIL.
&&
MRCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
459 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0427 PM HAIL 4 SW LEITCHFIELD 37.44N 86.34W
05/04/2016 E0.75 INCH GRAYSON KY PUBLIC
PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 5
MINUTES ALONG HIGHWAY 187.
&&
MRCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
532 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0518 PM HAIL 1 NNW KINGSTON 37.66N 84.26W
05/04/2016 E0.50 INCH MADISON KY PUBLIC
HAIL FELL FOR 5 MINUTES.
&&
MRCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
534 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0450 PM HAIL 2 N GLASGOW 37.02N 85.92W
05/04/2016 E0.75 INCH BARREN KY TRAINED SPOTTER
PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL FELL FOR 15 MINUTES.
&&
MRCThe Nashville radar (KOHX), 131 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:39 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Local law enforcement reported trees down near Highway 639 south.
Local law enforcement reported trees down near Holy Temple Road.
Clinton County dispatch reported power outages mainly from the Shipley community due to severe thunderstorm winds.
The public reported trees down on Churn Top road due to severe thunderstorm winds.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 622673, 622674, 622662, 622675.