After a very dry meteorological fall, several episodes of beneficial rain arrived across central Kentucky. Two to three inches of rain fell December 26 which brought the Rough River near Dundee into minor flood.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
After a very dry meteorological fall, several episodes of beneficial rain arrived across central Kentucky. Two to three inches of rain fell December 26 which brought the Rough River near Dundee into minor flood. The river fell below flood stage early on December 28.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 27, 5:13 PM CST, 1 hour 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 613 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 .Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 Mostly sunny skies were noted across the region this afternoon. Afternoon readings ranged from the lower 40s over far northern Kentucky to the upper 40s to near 50 down along the KY/TN border region. Skies are expected to remain clear through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Temperatures will fall off pretty quick after sunset with readings fall into the 30s this evening. For the overnight period, clear skies and light winds combined with wet ground may result in fog formation. With surface temperatures expected to be below freezing, freezing fog will be a concern. It should be noted that we mixed out rather well this afternoon, so the main area of fog concern tonight looks to be east of the US 127/27 corridor. Overall spatial coverage is still in question which precludes a headline issuance. However, will convey the freezing fog threat in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Overnight lows tonight look to drop into the 28-33 degree range in most areas. For Wednesday/Wednesday night, the day will start off dry with some patchy freezing fog possible in the southeastern/eastern sections. High pressure over the eastern part of the state will move off to the east and we'll get back into a southerly flow regime on the back side of the high. The Euro has continued to trend drier and closer to the other models, so a mainly dry day looks likely. Skies will become cloudy as the day wears on and light rain will move into the region from the southwest during the evening hours as a cold front pushes in from the west. The cold front will push through the region overnight with drier and cooler air pushing in for early Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will warm into the upper 40s to around 50 across southern Indiana with highs mainly in the 50-55 degree range across Kentucky. Lows Thursday morning will drop into the middle 30s in the north with upper 30s across the southern part of KY. .Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 313 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 Thursday through Friday... Cold front will push off to the east on Thursday and some drier air will attempt to work in from the west and northwest. Winds will be rather gusty on Thursday with 15-20 MPH sustained winds and gusts in the 25-30 MPH range. We're likely to see a gradient of cloud cover as low-level moisture looks to remain in place, particularly across east-central IN, much of OH and into northeastern KY. Low-level moisture looks to remain high into Thursday night and some snow flurries and/or light snow showers will be possible across the northern Bluegrass region Thursday night. Drier conditions are expected by Friday as a large high pressure system moves across the deep south. Highs Thursday look to warm into the lower 40s across southern IN and northern KY with mainly mid-upper 40s across southern KY. Lows Thursday night will cool back into the upper 20s. Highs Friday will be in the upper 30s to the lower 40s with upper 20s to lower 30s likely for Friday night. Saturday through Tuesday... As we close out 2016 and head into 2017, the weather looks to be rather wet and unsettled across the Ohio Valley. A couple of weather systems will take aim on the area during the period bringing plenty of clouds and more rainfall to the region. The first system looks to affect the region late Saturday and into early Sunday as a quick moving upper level wave passes through the region. On the heels of this system a warm front will surge northward through the region placing the region within the warm sector of a developing system across the southern Plains. Strong upper trough axis will move in from the Plains allowing a low pressure system to develop over the Red River Valley and then quickly ejecting to the northeast and arriving in the Great Lakes by Tuesday. Associated surface cold front will push in from the west with this feature and will likely clear the region by early Tuesday. Ahead of this frontal boundary, a strong/deep southerly flow will be in place yielding a deep return flow of moisture off the Gulf and bring yet another surge of warmer temperatures into the region. Overall, the system is similar to the one we saw earlier this week. Depending on how the system evolves, we could see another sharp gradient of temperatures across the region. While highs on Saturday will likely be in the mid-upper 40s, and in the 50s on Sunday, we could see another run into the 60s by Monday. If we saw more substantial clearing, another run into the upper 60s would be in the cards. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches look likely with this system and some thunderstorms will be possible...especially on Monday as the front comes in from the west. Drier conditions look likely by Tuesday, but the cooler air will likely lag behind the front by 12- 18 hours. Highs Tuesday will likely top out in the upper 40s to the lower 50s, but temperatures will cool back into the upper 20s to the lower 30s by Wednesday morning. Tuesday and Beyond... Teleconnection indices strongly point to a cold period of weather settling into much of North America as we get into the first and second week of January. The models continue to be in agreement with a strong ridge building northward into AK/Bering Strait and connecting up with a corresponding ridge over the north Atlantic and into Greenland. This is a high blocking pattern which would force a cold cyclonic gyre into southern Canada and into the northern US. Depending on the evolution of the pattern, the cold looks to drop into the western US first and then spread eastward. Its a remarkably similar pattern to what we saw in late November and into December. While it is likely the cold will advance eastward/southward with time, the highly amplified pattern over the Atlantic (SE Ridge) will try and hold sway and we'll likely see strong baroclinic boundary set up across the US. This will be the basis for the storm track with those on the cold side getting in on wintry weather and those on the southern side seeing plenty of heavy rainfall and strong convection. It is likely the boundary will set up somewhere near the Ohio Valley leading to a period of unsettled weather with above average precipitation falling in the first half of the month. The staying power of the cold is also questionable at this point. The key to the staying power of the cold will be whether or not significant blocking can hold over the Atlantic (i.e -NAO pattern). If it holds, then the cold will stay bottled up over the CONUS. On the other hand, if the north Atlantic blocking breaks down (like it did in Mid-December), then the Pacific jet will increase once again breaking down the north Pacific/AK ridge and the warmth will quickly return to much of the nation. An interesting few weeks of weather to watch for sure. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF ISSUANCE) Issued at 612 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 Steady W winds will slacken early this evening as surface high pressure settles over the region, and then moves east toward dawn. Will call for clear skies and light and variable winds overnight. There is some concern that we could see some 5-6 SM vis at BWG/LEX toward dawn, but marginal enough to leave any prevailing mention out of the TAFs for now. Steady S or SSE winds pick up on Wednesday with increasing mid clouds by later in the afternoon. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...None. KY...None. && Short Term...MJ Long Term....MJ Aviation...BJS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 327 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2016 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-282030- ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON- FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT- OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD- FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE- GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN- LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL- CUMBERLAND-CLINTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON... JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY... JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG... BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN... SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON... NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA... TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS... CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE... WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER... RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG... CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN... FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE... EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY 327 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2016 /227 PM CST TUE DEC 27 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS LATE TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE. MJ
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A series of systems moved through south central KY around and just after Christmas. This brought around two and a half inches of rain to the area over 3 days. This led to rises on the Rough River, resulting in Dundee cresting just above minor flood stage on December 28.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, December 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 665610.