A narrow band of storms developed early this afternoon as greater moisture began to move into southern Kentucky. The slow moving nature of this rainfall produced flash flooding across a portion of Leslie County and Bell County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A narrow band of storms developed early this afternoon as greater moisture began to move into southern Kentucky. The slow moving nature of this rainfall produced flash flooding across a portion of Leslie County and Bell County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 8, 8:50 AM EST, 3 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 950 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 950 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 Shower coverage is already increasing this morning across southern Kentucky, with a band of light shower pushing across northeast Kentucky. Looks like we should continue to see an expansion in coverage of showers and eventually thunderstorms as we head into the afternoon and evening hours. Also given the trends, bumped up pops to likely across southeast Kentucky where the best chances for rain will reside based on latest hi res model guidance. UPDATE Issued at 620 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 Only a minor update needed to better capture the mid to at times low level deck of clouds. Otherwise no major changes needed this update. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 406 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 The weather issue this AM is the cloud cover. We have seen a mid to even lower level stratus deck across traversing a good portion of eastern KY. Models have struggled some with this and made more manual modifications to the SKY grid set to deal with this. That said models and MSAS MSLP would suggest a surface trough (perhaps a pseudo warm front) aligned along and near the VA border this morning. This boundary is progged to move NW today based on the PWATs/theta-e gradient, and this will be one of the catalyst for convection through the day. This as the boundary spreads greater moisture into a good portion of the CWA. However the convection will still be tied to the diurnal heating given no mid or upper level support to speak of. The primary risk with any convection this afternoon will be brief heavy rainfall as PWATs climb to near 2 inches and large warm layer based on forecast soundings. Overall guidance is in reasonable agreement with the overall placement of convection. Tonight convection will trend down with the lose of diurnal heating through the early evening hours. left over clouds will will be difficult to pin down and will have implications on fog production. For now will keep the better fog within the deeper valley spots, but will be more prevalent where clouds are least and areas that receive more rainfall. It should be said that the surface trough will also continue to progress to the west into central KY through the night. Tuesday as said previously the surface trough will progress west, and will remain the main focus of the convection (given the lack of mid and upper level support). Models are struggling to agree on the location of this boundary, and therefore kept POPs closer to the model blended guidance at this point. That said this will focus the convection further west into central KY and lesser as you move east toward to VA border. Matter of fact much of the guidance including both the GFS/NAM would suggest those areas near the VA border would be nil for POPs. Given the time of year had a hard time justifying zero POPs, but did opt to go isolated in those areas. While the main threat would be heavy rainfall the overall better moisture should reside across central KY based on the PWATs. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 445 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 The models continue to be in pretty good agreement aloft through the extended portion of the forecast. They all depict broad ridging through the southern half of the nation with significant pockets of moisture and energy stuck under this key feature. A westward building Bermuda High will bolster the ridge locally through Thursday while doing little to erase the tropically influenced weakness over the deep south. In fact, the southern low will remain a factor through the weekend even after the Bermuda High retreats back east. Late in the period, some of this energy does look to come northeast over Kentucky in conjunction with a trough - sharper in the latest ECMWF than the GFS - to the north plodding into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Will continue to favor a general model blend through this part of the forecast. Sensible weather will feature a fairly typical wet summer time pattern with seasonable highs and muggy lows. The convection will be primarily driven by the diurnal cycle through Friday before the energy aloft and the core of the southeast moisture plume will overwhelm the trends and timing during the weekend as a weak sfc low takes shape over just west of the area. Accordingly, have gone with highest PoPs for the weekend with the values not so temporally driven by the diurnal cycle. With the temperature grids from the CR init have made just some minor adjustments for terrain specific spot lows each night. As for the PoPs, tweaked them primarily to exaggerate the diurnal trends in their hourly iterations, most focused during the work week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 VFR conditions are prevailing across all the TAF sites this morning. We have seen a mid to at times low level cloud deck moving across most of the region this morning. This has not been a problem in terms of CIGS and likely aiding limiting fog production. The next issue today will be the potential for afternoon showers and storms, but right now this looks to be scattered enough to garnish no more than VCTS at this point. This as surface trough acts as a lifting mechanism and also spreads moisture across a good portion of the region. Now some of these storms will have the potential to produce localized heavy rainfall, so quick VIS restrictions are possible if a TAF site does manage to see a storm. Tonight the fog production will be more likely in areas where rainfall occurs today and less cloud cover. Given the overall uncertainty at this point will hold off any fog mention. Light winds will prevail at sites through the period. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...DJ
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 422 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-091130- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON... MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG... BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN... SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE... PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN... PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN... JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY... PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 422 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. KAS/DJ
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 74 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:58 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Department of highway officials reported quickly flowing water along a portion of Kentucky Highway 2058 near Spruce Pine, resulting in a mudslide.
Department of highway officials reported water flowing over numerous county roads and into adjacent yards off of Kentucky Highway 92 near Ingram. A culvert was also washed out by these quickly flowing flood waters.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 642489, 642487.