Slow moving thunderstorms developed during the afternoon and evening hours August 1 thanks to a very moist environment and warm temperatures. Localized flash flooding developed as a result.
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The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
Slow moving thunderstorms developed during the afternoon and evening hours August 1 thanks to a very moist environment and warm temperatures. Localized flash flooding developed as a result.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 2:07 PM EST, 2 hours 16 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 307 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 .SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)... Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Aug 1 2016 Well...the pattern remains the same as the last couple of weeks with sct convection with High PWATs, and weak mid level flow. The initial convection this morning was from the MCS over MO and while second part of the mcs outflow which has been weakening across wrn KY. However in between those 2 areas the sun came out from BWG to FTK and convective temperature was achieved and sct to likely low centroid storms have been firing up across S Central KY (east of I 65 and south of I 64). Will follow the high resolution short term models and radar trends before press time, but my inclination is to keep sct to likely pops through 00z across SE KY into Bluegrass and sct pops s of I 64 and lowest pops acrs srn IN. With PWATs so high, evening shift will be monitoring heavy rain/flood potential. Have a Flood Advisory out for Nicholas County til 530 EDT. Lowering Pops after 04z with the main action tonight a MCS near the MN/IA/NE/SD border between 06-09z and head to IL and Wrn KY late. Kept the theme from the mid shift keeping the highest POPS up against PAH. Some places have received copious rainfall and that will bring the patchy fog concerns late tonight. Have added patchy fog in the grids east of I 65. Surface High pressure over lake Erie will suppress convection across Nrn Bluegrass tomorrow with best chances W of I 65 with low chance POPs. Once again localized heavy rain will be a concern. Should be another MCS diving down late Tuesday night coming down across IN. .LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)... Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Aug 1 2016 The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will continue to feature the stubborn pattern we have been stuck in most of the past few weeks, with ridging dominating much of the central CONUS and weak troughing persisting over the Northeast. This pattern is expected to change very little through the period, which will keep almost daily thunderstorm chances in the forecast through early next week. The latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to suggest daily thunderstorm chances as the region remains on the northeast periphery of an upper-level ridge. Timing of individual waves is difficult at these temporal scales, thus an ensemble approach will continue to be used with this forecast package. It appears that the best coverage of precipitation will be late Friday into Saturday as a weak synoptic boundary sags southeast into the region. It may have just enough of a southward push to dry out at least the northern CWA Sunday and maybe into Monday, but ensemble data shows rather high spread during this time frame so confidence is not overly high on how far south the front will be able to get. Being on the edge of the upper ridge, temperatures will warm through the end of the week, with low to mid 90s expected Wednesday through Friday outside of thunderstorms. Temperatures will be a bit cooler this weekend given a bit better thunderstorm coverage and the front attempting to sag through the area. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Issued at 1255 PM EDT Mon Aug 1 2016 Well, cluster of storms just went through SDF and is heading towards LEX. Another cluster of storms over Madisonville to the Land Between the Lakes is heading to BWG. HRR also develops additional scattered storms this afternoon. Juicy atmosphere will allow for copious rainfall to drop vsbys if a storm hits the airfield. will be looking at high resolution models and radar trends before issuance around 135 pm edt. Winds will be generally fairly light today and out of the southwest to west. Fog may once again show its face tonight at any airport that gets at least a quarter of an inch of precip today (like SDF). && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && Short Term........JDG Long Term.........KJD Aviation..........JDG
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1018 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-021430- ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON- FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT- OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD- FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE- GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN- LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL- CUMBERLAND-CLINTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON... JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY... JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG... BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN... SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON... NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA... TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS... CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE... WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER... RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG... CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN... FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE... EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY 1018 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 /918 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY...AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM STORMS OVER MISSOURI. THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ROUNDS OF STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OFF AND ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER SHOULD REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF FLOODED ROADWAYS TODAY. RJS/JDG
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1240 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016
INZ079-KYZ032-011715-
JEFFERSON-TRIMBLE-
1240 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN
TRIMBLE COUNTIES...
AT 1238 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BROOKSBURG... MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MADISON...BROOKSBURG...HANOVER...SMYRNA...MILTON...DUPONT...
HANOVER BEACH...RINGWALD...CANAAN AND BELLEVIEW.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
LAT...LON 3869 8520 3870 8522 3873 8524 3874 8527
3874 8533 3863 8523 3860 8522 3863 8543
3891 8553 3891 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 1638Z 277DEG 22KT 3874 8530
JDGSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
159 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016
KYZ043-011830-
NICHOLAS-
159 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NICHOLAS COUNTY...
AT 158 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CARLISLE...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH BUT IS ALSO BACKBUILDING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LOCALIZED LOW LYING FLOODING.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARLISLE...MORNING GLORY...ELLISVILLE...MYERS...JACKSTOWN...
HOOKTOWN...HEADQUARTERS...PLEASANT VALLEY...MOOREFIELD AND SPROUT.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
LAT...LON 3830 8385 3819 8398 3822 8398 3820 8399
3823 8406 3827 8408 3826 8410 3828 8412
3829 8410 3837 8419 3846 8410 3843 8400
3842 8400 3844 8397 3836 8389 3835 8390
3836 8387 3833 8386 3834 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 277DEG 22KT 3833 8400
JDGThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 91 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:21 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported intense heavy rainfall with flash flooding along Highway 627.
A trained spotter reported water across Boonesboro Road.
Local broadcast media reported flash flooding on Old Boonesboro Road near Heather Lane. This resulted in the road closing because of high water flowing over it.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 642192, 642194, 642195.