Damaging Wind in Indiana, August 28, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
545 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

The short term will continue to be dominated by a strong high
pressure system which will be retrogressing slowly west from the
East Coast. Consequently, shower/thunderstorm chances will
continue to be low in any given spot and will continue to be
mainly diurnal in nature with exact placement mainly dependent on
the location of small scale/mesoscale focusing mechanisms such as
low level outflow boundaries and differential heating.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the period
with highs generally from near 90 to the lower half of the 90s
and surface dew points hanging in the lower to mid 70s. Many locations
will once again flirt with heat indices up around 100 degrees both
Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Models continue to show an upper level trof just northwest of the
PAH forecast area on Wednesday, being pushed off to our east by
Thursday as an upper level ridge builds across the Plains.  At the
surface, high pressure over central Canada on Wednesday will move
slowly southeast, with ECMWF and GFS centering the high over the
Great Lakes Region at 00z Saturday.  With warm moist air in place
across middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys, the movement of
the upper trof will trigger showers and thunderstorms across our
region on Wednesday.  A few showers and storms will possibly linger
in northwest/west portions of our regions Wednesday evening, and in
our far west counties on Thursday.  The building upper level ridge
should give our entire area dry conditions by Thursday night.

It will remain warm and humid Wednesday.  As the surface high sinks
southeast, slightly cooler and drier air will begin filtering into
the area Thursday and continue into Friday.  Near seasonal
temperatures and dew points around 70 degrees on Wednesday will both
drop off a couple of degrees for Thursday, and a couple of more
degrees for Friday.  The surface high will move off to our east over
the weekend, and winds will slowly be turning back to the south.
This will result in gradually increasing temperatures and dew points
over the weekend.&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Occasional LIFR/IFR cigs/vsbys may occur once again Monday morning
in the 08-13Z period due to possible redevelopment of fog/stratus.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail at all sites. Upper level
high pressure centered over the area should preclude most
convective development, but an isolated shower or storm may
randomly pop up in the heat of the day. However, not enough
coverage to warrant putting in TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 545 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

With diurnal convective activity waning, kept VFR conditions will
dominate the forecast period. Most of the visibility restrictions
the previous night were likely associated with ground fog, so
added a mentioned of patchy ground fog around the terminal sites
around daybreak Monday.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...Smith

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
720 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-291000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
720 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAINLY AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OR
PART OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
319 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

KYZ010-282100-
CRITTENDEN KY-
319 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

AT 319 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CRESWELL...OR NEAR MARION. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL CRITTENDEN
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PADUCAH.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 8794 3726 8801 3730 8808 3736 8801
      3731 8793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 127DEG 1KT 3729 8800

SMITH