A couple of thunderstorm complexes moved eastward across southern Illinois in a warm and moist air mass. A stationary front that extended from southern Illinois to central Arkansas provided a focus for heavy rainfall.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A couple of thunderstorm complexes moved eastward across southern Illinois in a warm and moist air mass. A stationary front that extended from southern Illinois to central Arkansas provided a focus for heavy rainfall. A 500 mb shortwave trough moved east-northeast across Missouri, which helped maintain the intensity of the storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 16, 5:34 PM CST, 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 634 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 .UPDATE... Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Airmass has destabilized over the southern 1/2 of the area. Expect convection to develop across the area and lift NE through the late day and evening hours. Better chances should be toward midnight and after from the west, highest PoPs WNW, lowest ESE later tonight. Chances will continue Saturday, with best chances shifting east by afternoon. After that, lowering chances from NW to SE Saturday night into Sunday. Basically used a model blend throughout, tending more toward NAM/WRF solutions in the near term. Temps will continue to be a blend of MOS and existing numbers. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Both the ECMWF and GFS medium range numerical guidance still continue the trend during the past two days of isolating the currently developing area of low pressure within the Eastern Pacific/California/Nevada trough axis. Have increasing confidence in this scenario and expect to see a retrograde of the Southeast U.S. ridge back into the area, following the passage of the Upper Midwest progressive trough/low this weekend. With the ridge in place, thicknesses will increase along the northeast quarter of the high pressure ridge, gradually warming the layer and suppressing convective activity in the meantime. Would not be surprised to see periodic nocturnal fog development early in the week, but given the uncertainty of the coverage, did not generate within this extended gridded forecast package. Did not stray to much from the blended guidance with respect to max/min temperatures and dewpoints...as the majority of the blended guidance values are within tolerance. With little cooling in place in the presence of the ridge, some locations, especially Southeast Missouri, could revisit heat index values in the lower 90s next week. && .AVIATION... Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2016 Timing of thunderstorm chances is the main forecast concern. As of 23z, storms were northwest of a line from kcgi to kevv. An upper- level disturbance over the Plains will move east-northeast tonight, eventually causing the storms to progress east across the taf sites. Computer model guidance is in general agreement that late tonight and Saturday morning will be the most likely time for showers and storms. Local IFR conditions are possible in showers/storms. A general improving trend is expected during Sat afternoon. Winds will be mainly light south to southwest at kcgi/kpah through the period. Winds at the kevv/kowb sites will become light southwest on Saturday. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && AVIATION...MY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 325 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-171000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 325 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AND THE PRIMARY STORM RELATED HAZARD WILL BE BRIEF BUT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT THEIR PEAK CHANCES ON SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY STORM RELATED HAZARD WILL BE BRIEF BUT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT CAN CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. STORM CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND DO SO MARKEDLY SUNDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE SWEEPS OUT OF THE AREA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY THEIR STORM RAINFALL AMOUNTS DIRECTLY TO THE NWS OR THROUGH THEIR LOCAL RELAY POINT.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
543 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016
ILZ080-084-162315-
PERRY IL-JACKSON IL-
543 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND PERRY
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...
AT 542 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM COULTERVILLE TO NEAR WILLISVILLE. MOVEMENT WAS
EAST AT 25 MPH.
HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PINCKNEYVILLE...AVA...WILLISVILLE...CUTLER...
CAMPBELL HILL AND VERGENNES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 3821 8928 3789 8929 3789 8963 3790 8963
3796 8959 3822 8959
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 251DEG 24KT 3818 8962 3792 8962
DRSSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 550 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 ILZ085-086-089-090-162330- POPE IL-WILLIAMSON IL-JOHNSON IL-SALINE IL- 550 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN POPE...WESTERN SALINE...EASTERN WILLIAMSON AND NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT... AT 550 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF CREAL SPRINGS...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARRISBURG... MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HARRISBURG...CARRIER MILLS...GALATIA...CARRIERS MILLS...RALEIGH AND STONEFORT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3754 8864 3757 8876 3786 8884 3786 8853 TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 184DEG 18KT 3759 8871 DRS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
702 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0545 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S PINCKNEYVILLE 38.05N 89.38W
09/16/2016 PERRY IL LAW ENFORCEMENT
LATE REPORT...TREE DOWN ALONG DALMATION ROAD. RELAYED
THROUGH EM.
&&
SMITTYThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Street flooding was reported throughout the community, as well as portions of U.S. Highway 51.
The intersection of Highway 142 and County Road 700N was covered with three inches of water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, September 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 656903, 656904.