Hail in Illinois, March 27, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
210 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016

Cold front is analyzed with westerlies from STL to just west of
UNO. Visible imagery shows dense cloud mass just behind boundary
with radar indicating cold advection post frontal rain across cntl
MO. BINOVC in pre frontal environ over PAH FA, with peaking
afternoon temps in l-m70s and dew points ranging from u50s (west)
to lower 60s (east). The window for convection is short-lived,
from as little as 1-2 hours in our west, to as much as 3-4 hours
in our east. The front will make rapid eastward progression thru
the pm/early evening hours. It will encounter MUCapes supportive
of thunder potential, with temps aloft and steepened lapse rates
supportive of SLGT risk svr, mainly along/east of Lower Ohio River
valley region and across much of WKY. Thunder chances then drop
off markedly/shifting east after 00z and scour entirely after 03z
or 04z. Will continue close weather watch for pm svr potential,
with damaging winds/hail still primary hazards if a svr storm
occurs.

After fropa, pops eliminated and skies clear shortly thereafter
(mainly after midnight) tonight. We'll see some 30s dip into the
area tonight for lows, mainly across our western third/counties.
While patchy frost may be possible in the Ozarks or western fringe
counties, believe winds will hold light breeze for all but very
end of night (far west) and thus preclude necessity for frost
headline like further to our West.

Slightly cooler/drier air then works down the column for
tmrw/tmrw night. Tuesday is an airmass modifying/rebounding day,
though not as warm as today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday Night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016

The primary weather feature will occur within the first 24 hours
of the extended forecast period. The trough forecast to build into
the Pacific Northwest U.S. today will carve out a closed low
across the Western U.S. through Tuesday. As the western limb of
the slightly westward tilted north-south orient ridge moves east
of the area, the moisture plume from the Gulf of Mexico will
intersect with more favorable instability on Wednesday. This will
produce of a mix of showers and thunderstorms, as minor impulses
rotate around the eastern limb of the trough from northern Mexico
and northward from the Lower Mississippi Valley. The thunderstorm
activity should diminish following the passage of the front
(albeit weak) Wednesday night, as the upper low from the Western
U.S. shifts into the Middle Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest.

By Thursday, the flow of moisture is truncated as the broad upper
trough across the Midwest shears out along the southern edge.
This will limit the deep layer moisture, with the only
contribution from existing moisture advected around the trough
from the upper Midwest. Given the variability in both the speed
and location of the upper trough, there may be intermittent
injection of cold air advection shower (possibly isolated
thunderstorm) development from northwest to southeast across the
WFO PAH forecast area. For all intent and purposes, plan to keep
the area dry, as coverage will be sporadic at best Friday into
Saturday.

With the switch to northwest flow late Friday night through Sunday
night, we could see temperatures falling back into the 30s. we
could see frost potential and possibly a mild freeze potential
each night next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Mar 27 2016

Terminals reside in pre frontal environ this pm, with MVFR
scattered bases becoming CIGS as cold front taps moistening tongue
in advance of its arrival late this pm/and passage early this
evening. Convective chances increase, particularly east, and have
included MVFR to at times IFR vsby restriction with gusty winds
and perhaps, airport alternate cigs occurring in stronger storm.
The time window is short, from 1-2 hours west (KCGI) to 3-4 hours
east (KOWB) for convection induced restrictions. Otherwise fropa
will ultimately clear/scatter skies later tonight as winds go
northwesterly and slacken.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

LONG TERM...Smith

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
403 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
403 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
335 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

ILZ093-272100-
PULASKI IL-
335 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

AT 334 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF MOUNDS...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF LA CENTER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OLMSTED AND NEW GRAND CHAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3716 8913 3723 8915 3733 8908 3725 8898
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 218DEG 32KT 3720 8912

SMITH