Clusters of storms moved slowly eastward across southeast Illinois, producing very heavy rainfall. The storms occurred in the vicinity of a weak stationary front that was draped across the Lower Ohio Valley.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Clusters of storms moved slowly eastward across southeast Illinois, producing very heavy rainfall. The storms occurred in the vicinity of a weak stationary front that was draped across the Lower Ohio Valley. The atmosphere was warm and very moist, with surface dew points in the middle 70's.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 25, 1:31 PM CST, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 231 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016 The forecast is rather straight-forward during the short term. Essentially what you see is what you get through Wednesday night. A very juicy air mass will remain in place, with precip water values around 2 inches and surface dew points in the mid 70s. Very little forcing will be required to induce convection. As the 500 mb ridge yields to some broad troughing over the mid and upper Mississippi Valley, weak 500 mb shortwaves will be more than enough to trigger convection. Storms popped up around midday today in an environment of weak forcing as the convective temp was reached. A similar scenario is expected Tuesday with very little change in thermodynamics. The nam indicates k-indices will remain in the upper 30s through Wednesday, indicative of very moist air in the low and mid levels. Though mid-level lapse rates are quite weak, high capes are enabling deep convection. The convection appeared to be mainly diurnally driven today. As the mid-level flow increases a bit and 500 mb shortwaves become better defined, the potential for nocturnal convection will increase over the next couple nights. Again, the primary hazard will continue to be heavy rainfall due to slow cell movement and precip water values around 2 inches. High temps the next couple days should again be near the convective temp around 90 degrees. Heat indices may briefly top 100 degrees prior to the cooling effects of convection. As far as pops through Wednesday night, the areal coverage of convection is going to be highly variable from hour to hour. A generic pop of 50 percent is probably the best way to convey this variability. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016 Average confidence in the long term due to model differences. The long term period starts off with the establishment of a broad H5 trough over the midsection of the country. All surface features are forecast to be well to our north and west at that time, but with plenty of moisture and instability over the area, shower and thunderstorm chances max out Thursday with the approach of the upper level energy. Beyond that through Sunday night, the area will remain under the aforementioned broad H5 trough keeping the region in cyclonic flow aloft with plenty of moisture and instability on tap. In this period, the west northwest flow is forecast to push a weakening frontal boundary toward and eventually into the area, but in this regime it's hard to move a frontal boundary through a huge dome of heat and humidity. Even so, given the elevated levels of moisture and instability, precipitation chances remain in the forecast through the weekend. Monday models show a slight eastward progression of the trough with rising heights aloft. Not sure if this will completely shut down precipitation chances, but if it pans out will certainly lower probabilities at the end of the period. Temperatures should remain just below normal through the period, so we're not expecting any heat headlines, although with dewpoints remaining in the 70s, humid conditions will continue. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016 Scattered to numerous thunderstorms developed near all taf sites by noon. Given the very moist and unstable atmosphere, development should continue through the afternoon. Local ifr conditions will occur with the storms, which are producing heavy rain. The storms will gradually decrease with loss of daytime heating between sunset and midnight. Fog appears more likely late tonight and early Tuesday morning, since it appears the ground will become moistened by storms today. Introduced mention of mvfr vsbys, but ifr conditions may be included in later sets of tafs if heavy rain materializes at all sites. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...MY LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...MY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 323 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-262030- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 323 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Some minor street flooding was reported. A trained spotter measured 2.30 inches in 45 minutes.
Ditches were overflowing, and there was some street flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 646796, 646797.