Damaging Winds in Idaho, August 6, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
359 AM MDT Sat Aug 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...A plume of moisture continues to stream into the
Northern Rockies this morning causing scattered to numerous
high based convection, especially over north central Idaho and
northwest Montana. An isolated thunderstorm will be embedded
within this band of convection this morning. This plume will
slowly move off to the east throughout the day, but afternoon
instability could allow for the development of strong
thunderstorms across western Montana. The best instability appears
to be over southwest Montana, especially the Butte/Anaconda area.
These storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, small hail
and moderate to heavy rain. The convection should diminish during
the overnight hours.

A more significant disturbance will track across the Northern
Rockies on Sunday and interact with a considerable amount of
atmosphere moisture. Most locations across the region should
receive a decent amount of rain. The afternoon/evening instability
could allow for the development of strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms. Any hefty convection that does develop could
produce heavy rainfall rates, creating hydrological concerns. The
exact track of the heaviest precipitation is a little uncertain,
but general consensus will be across southern Idaho county into
Butte/Anaconda area then up along the Continental Divide to
Glacier Park.

Monday through Wednesday, an upper level low will slowly move
through the Northern Rockies leading to a decent chance of showers
and thunderstorms, especially across Northwest Montana. Daytime
temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal with highs in the
70s for many valley locations. The upper low is expected to depart
by late next week which will allow for considerable warming and
drying.

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.AVIATION...Monsoonal moisture will continue to track across the
Northern Rockies today. A plume of numerous showers with embedded
thunderstorms is currently tracking across north central Idaho up
into northwest Montana. KGPI and KMSO will be impacted by high
based convection throughout the day. The moisture will shift to
the east throughout day. As the atmosphere destabilizes this
afternoon, expect the convection to become stronger in nature.
Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could produce gusty and
erratic winds, small hail and moderate to heavy rainfall. The
strongest storms will be across northwest and southwest Montana
with the biggest impact being at KGPI and KBTM. The convection is
anticipated to diminish after sunset tonight.

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.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Fire Weather Watch from 3 PM MDT this afternoon through this
     evening Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East Beaverhead.

ID...&&