Wildfire in Hawaii, February 11 to 18, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
347 PM HST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL STATE-WIDE INTO FRIDAY. STABLE
AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS...WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL EXPECTED ON THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL LIKELY FUEL INCREASED
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
DRIVES BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS OVER ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STABLE AND RATHER DRY TRADE WIND FLOW DOMINATES THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS PASSING ABOUT 350 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVERHEAD. A
DIFFUSE BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED
OVER AND EAST OF KAUAI...BUT NOT MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THIS
FEATURE...SINCE THE AFTERNOON LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED THE INVERSION
AT 4500 FT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN AN INCH. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...WHERE
THE INVERSION IS CLOSER TO 3500 FT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS JUST
OVER A HALF AN INCH ACCORDING TO THE HILO SOUNDING.

A STABLE AND RATHER DRY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OVER MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS WINDWARD KAUAI AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BAND LINGERS THROUGH THE EVENING. AN AREA OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY SITTING 225 MILES EAST OF HILO WILL DRIFT WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL ON THE BIG
ISLAND AND EAST MAUI LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MINIMAL ELSEWHERE.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND EDGE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI WILL
CONTINUE...AND COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN A NOTCH...WHILE WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF ALL ISLANDS...BUT A
HYBRID TRADE WIND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
COULD PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

AN INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS AND PERIODS OF ACTIVE SHOWERS ON SOME
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY. AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS DUE ON KAUAI BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BAND OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY MOVING OVER OAHU AND PARTS OF MAUI
COUNTY ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ITS TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER E AND NE FACING SLOPES ON KAUAI AND POSSIBLY OVER
OAHU OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES INTERACTS WITH
ISLAND TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS 51001 AND 51101 TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE HAVE SHOWN A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN THE NORTHWEST SWELL DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...MAINLY IN THE 12 TO 14 FT AT 14 TO 15 SECONDS RANGE.
GIVING THESE READINGS...THE HIGH SURF WARNING FOR MOST NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES FROM KAUAI TO MAUI HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WHILE WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND HAVE BEEN
TAKEN DOWN TO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REPLACED BY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AFFECTED AREAS ON
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST WATERS
DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS FROM THE LARGE SWELL...AND A SCA GOES INTO
EFFECT TONIGHT FOR LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
BORDER LINE STRENGTH IN THE AFFECTED AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHILE THE AREAS AFFECTED SOLELY BY ELEVATED SEAS WILL
BRIEFLY DROP OUT OF THE SCA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS SEAS ON SUNDAY.

STRONGER TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MONDAY HOLIDAY. THE
WINDS...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...WILL LIKELY INCREASE FIRST AROUND
KAUAI...THEN SPREAD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR WEST AND NORTH
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD
WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY
FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

PUBLIC AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...BURKE