Drought in Guam, February 1 to 29, 2016

Name: Drought in Guam, February 1 to 29, 2016
Start: 2016-02-01T00:00
End: 2016-02-29T23:59
Location: Guam

February 1 to 29, 2016 · NWS GUM · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

S. Drought Monitor indicate that some locations in the Republic of Palau, Yap State, Pohnpei States, and parts of the Marshall Islands continue to be in a period of moderate to severe drought with some locations entering extreme drought levels (Drought Level 3) Increasingly dry conditions usually develop across Micronesia after the mature phase of a strong El Nino.

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GUM wrote it up.

The experimental drought assessment of the U.S. Drought Monitor indicate that some locations in the Republic of Palau, Yap State, Pohnpei States, and parts of the Marshall Islands continue to be in a period of moderate to severe drought with some locations entering extreme drought levels (Drought Level 3)

Increasingly dry conditions usually develop across Micronesia after the mature phase of a strong El Nino.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 6:04 AM UTC, 7 hours 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 6:04 AM UTC, 7 hours 56 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
404 PM CHST SUN JAN 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL AREA OF SHEAR LINE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AFFECTED GUAM
EARLIER TODAY...BUT IT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. THE SHEAR LINE ITSELF STILL PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF
GUAM NEAR 10N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PORTION OF THE
SHEAR LINE FARTHER EAST BETWEEN 155E AND 175E IS EVOLVING INTO A
BROAD TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING OR GRIDS. NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO BE AN ELONGATED TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE FORECAST ZONES FROM 160E. DISTURBANCE
LOOKS DIFFUSE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SO WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF HINT THAT ANOTHER TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE COULD ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...BUT WILL
WAIT FOR SATELLITE IMAGERY TO CONFIRM THIS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT THE IPAN BUOY STUBBORNLY REMAIN NEAR THE 10 FT LEVEL.
WAVE WATCH TABULAR GUIDANCE IS TRENDING LATER WITH THE ONSET OF
THE DECLINE IN SEAS...SO WILL EXTEND ADVISORIES ONCE AGAIN UNTIL
TOMORROW. SHEAR LINE TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM HAS BEEN SLOW TO FALL
APART...WHICH HAS MAINTAINED WINDS AND SEAS UPSTREAM FROM THE
MARINE ZONES. STILL EXPECT SHEAR LINE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND
ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SMALL AREA OF SHEAR LINE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SUPPRESSED FIRE
DANGER TODAY...BUT CLEARER SKIES ARE SPREADING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. DAY SHIFT ON MONDAY MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...IF WINDS SUBSIDE AS FORECAST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION FROM
CHUUK EASTWARD TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO BE CONFINED SOUTH OF 4N WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE REMAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE SCOURED OUT BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION...
FURTHER SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
MICRONESIA. THEREFORE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AS WELL AS KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTEROMETER SHOWS A
BROAD AREA OF CONSISTENT WINDS NEAR 20 KT AFFECTING ALL LOCATIONS
SO BUMPED UP WINDS JUST A LITTLE TO REFLECT CURRENT DATA.

TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WAVES ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING ACROSS EASTERN
MICRONESIA. THIS HAS ALLOWED SURF ON EAST FACING REEFS OF POHNPEI
TO FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS SO THE ADVISORY THERE WAS
CANCELLED. HOWEVER...ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF WILL CONTINUE FOR KOSRAE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE LOWER THRESHOLD.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE DRY-TRADE WIND PATTERN EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM EASTERN
MICRONESIA OVER CHUUK STATE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH DEEP CONVECTION STAYING WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF CHUUK. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO KOROR BUT LARGELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF YAP TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS KOROR
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY MIDWEEK.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR YAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AFTER TONIGHT
AS SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WAVES ENHANCED BY STRONGER WINDS NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF KOROR WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING HAZARDOUS SURF TO THE EASTERN SHORES OF YAP AND
KOROR THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SURF FOR BOTH LOCATIONS SHOULD FALL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS LATER ON MONDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR GUZ001.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY FOR
     PMZ151>154.

&&

MCELROY/WILLIAMS

Event by event

3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Belau

When: February 1, 12:00 AM GST to February 29, 11:59 PM GST
Where: Belau forecast zone
Reported by: Official NWS Observations

The experimental drought assessment of the U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that some locations in the Republic of Palau had entered a period of extreme drought conditions (Drought level 3).

Rainfall across The Republic of Palau continued to be lower than average. During February only 2.55 inches fell at the Weather Service Office as opposed to the average rainfall of 9.54 inches.

Peleliu, another island in the Republic, also showed the effect of the drought with only 1.93 inches falling in February compared to the average rainfall of 9.00 inches at that location.

As the drought has persisted for months the water supply has suffered in the Republic. Low water pressure in the water lines from the Nagerimel dam to Airai treatment plant promoted water rationing in Koror and Airai.

Drought, Micronesia

When: February 1, 12:00 AM GST to 11:59 PM GST
Where: Micronesia forecast zone
Reported by: Official NWS Observations

The experimental drought assessment of the U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that some locations in Yap State remain in a period of severe drought conditions (Drought level 2).| Rainfall across Yap was lower than average as February continued the dry |trend as the Weather Service Office only recorded 1.77 inches compared to the usual 5.99 inches.| Woleai, an atoll in Yap State ( 400 miles ESE of Yap Island), illustrated the severity of the drought as only 0.22 inches fell there compared to the average 6.12 inches.| Ulithi, also an atoll and part of Yap State (110 miles NE of Yap Island), received only 54 percent of the usual February rainfall, with only 2.61 inches falling compared with the average of 4.80 inches.

The experimental drought assessment of the U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that some locations in Pohnpei State had entered a period of moderate drought conditions (Drought level 1).| Rainfall across Pohnpei was lower than average as February continued the dry |trend as the Weather Service Office only recorded 4.64 inches compared to the usual 10.02 inches. The paucity of rain affected the water level in the Nanpil dam storage area. The water stopped flowing from the dam to the dam around the 10th of February. The water level behind the dam probably went below the intake point of the water pipes. Because of the low water levels, conservation measures are|stronly advised. |Pingelap, an atoll in Pohnpei State ( 185 miles ESE of Pohnpei Island), illustrated the severity of the drought, as only 2.65 inches fell there compared to the average 10.42 inches.

Drought, Marshall Islands

When: February 1, 12:00 AM GST to February 29, 11:59 PM GST
Where: Marshall Islands forecast zone
Reported by: Official NWS Observations

The experimental drought assessment of the U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that some locations in the Republic of the Marshall Islands had entered a period of extreme drought conditions (Drought level 3).|Rainfall across Majuro was lower than average in February as the Weather Service Office only recorded 3.17 inches compared to the usual 7.62 inches.

Normally February is a dry month for portions of the Marshall Islands, but this year witnessed a deeper dry period than usual. Wotje, an atoll in the Marshall ( 185 miles NNW of Majuro and ENE of Kwajalein), illustrated the severity of the drought as only 0.05 inches fell there compared to the average 1.56 inches. Utirik, another Marshall Island atoll (220 miles NE of Kwajalein and 345 miles NNW of Majuro) received only 0.94 inches of rain compared to the usual of 2.75 inches. The Reagan Test Center Weather Station at Kwajalein recorded only 0.46 inches of rain in February.

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Guam in 2016 Every state in 2016 This day in weather history Warnings in Guam, February 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 620333, 620336, 620337.