A very moist and moderately unstable air mass combined with strong daytime heating, a weak upper-level trough and a stalled front to produce an isolated severe thunderstorm in north Georgia during the early evening.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FFC wrote it up.
A very moist and moderately unstable air mass combined with strong daytime heating, a weak upper-level trough and a stalled front to produce an isolated severe thunderstorm in north Georgia during the early evening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Atlanta, GA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 19, 2:31 PM EST, 3 hours 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 331 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/... The latest regional surface analysis shows low pressure continues off the Carolinas coast...spreading moisture back to the west into the western Carolinas and eastern GA. RAP upper air analysis shows upper low just to the west of the surface feature but continues to sink further south and east with time. With this setup...most of the activity has remained to the east and south of the local area and best chances for the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening looks to be over telfair...Wheeler...Montgomery and Toombs. There has been a surprising amount of low topped shra activity over portions of AL and have included 20 pops for all locations because of this. Upper low continues to shift southeast through Tue but moisture actually increases over the eastern sections of the area as circulation around both this and surface feature brings enhanced moisture back toward the local area. Forcing and instability look limited with this and low end chance pops look to suffice through the remainder of the short term period. Deese .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/... No major changes made to the extended forecast. Long range models show fairly good agreement through the long term... with each model beginning the period with a cut off upper low spinning over southeast Georgia and South Carolina where it meanders through Thursday or Friday before gradually shearing eastward over the weekend. This feature will likely keep some form of a weak surface low or trough along the coasts of Georgia and Carolinas through the work week. The resulting easterly wind flow will try to spread Atlantic moisture back over at least the eastern portions of the forecast area... and this will warrant holding onto a slight to low chance of showers and thunderstorms over at least the eastern zones through much of the period. The good news is instabilities seem to remain in check as expected cool east winds coupled with increasing clouds hold afternoon cape values in the 800-1200 J/KG range Wednesday through Friday. Cape values increase a bit over the weekend as the upper low shears out... which likely increases afternoon sunshine and daytime temperatures. However... high pressure building in from the west along with a fairly dry northerly wind flow will continue to help hold rain chances down in the 20-30 percent range at best over the weekend. Otherwise... expecting highs to hold mainly in the 80s through the work week... with some lower 90s likely by the weekend with increasing sunshine. Lows should run mostly in the 60s. 01 && AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... IFR to MVFR conditions that were in place early this morning have transitioned mostly to FEW to SCT VFR for most locales. Still some BKN conditions hanging on in the far east and south but even these should abate with time late this afternoon. VFR conditions to continue for the remainder of the TAF cycle with just a wind shift to be concerned with at 06Z tonight which should send direction to NE. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... High on all elements. Deese && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 68 88 69 84 / 20 20 20 30 Atlanta 69 88 71 85 / 20 10 10 20 Blairsville 60 85 62 83 / 20 10 10 10 Cartersville 65 89 66 87 / 20 10 10 10 Columbus 71 92 71 89 / 20 10 10 20 Gainesville 68 87 69 84 / 20 20 20 20 Macon 69 90 69 87 / 20 10 10 30 Rome 65 89 66 88 / 20 5 5 10 Peachtree City 67 89 67 86 / 20 10 10 20 Vidalia 72 88 71 86 / 30 20 20 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...Deese LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...Deese
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 601 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086- 089>098-102>113-202215- BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA- CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA- CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL- FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE- GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON- JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON- MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY- MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH- PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON- SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS- TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN- WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES- WILKINSON- 601 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... BRIEF GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN STORM THREATS. DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
702 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016
GAZ027-192330-
MADISON GA-
702 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 730
PM EDT...
AT 701 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER DANIELSVILLE...MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 MPH.
HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAIN.
IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.
MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
DANIELSVILLE...COLBERT...ILA...HULL...NEESE...DIAMOND HILL AND
POCATALIGO.
LAT...LON 3417 8316 3402 8318 3400 8322 3401 8323
3400 8326 3401 8327 3400 8328 3403 8332
3405 8339 3408 8338 3412 8336 3416 8336
3423 8328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 016DEG 11KT 3414 8322The Greer radar (KGSP), 123 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:20 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Madison County 911 center reported several trees blown down across the Danielsville area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, September 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 655629.