Hail and Damaging Wind in Florida, September 24 to 25, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
315 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 8 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a broad area of higher
pressure across much of the Southeast. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a strong ridge from the central Gulf Coast to the upper
Midwest, but there was a weak minimum in the height/temperature
fields centered over Tallahassee. The latest RAP analysis did not
show any Q-G forcing associated with this low. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms have been developing early this afternoon, but most
have been dissipating quickly once they grow into the dry zone
aloft. We expect isolated storms to continue through the afternoon,
mainly near the coast. It's interesting to note that a few of the
storms today have had a tremendous amount of lightning. Any
remaining storms from this afternoon will dissipate by evening,
though isolated storms will develop offshore toward dawn. Overnight
lows will be in the lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

An upper level low positioned across the western part of the CWA is
expected to move slightly west on Sunday, and then shift eastward on
Monday. The movement of this low will begin to sink a cold front
into the southeast. Ahead of this cold front, winds will shift east
on Sunday and there will be an increase in moisture. A slightly more
active day in terms of coverage can also be expected on Monday, with
PoPs around 30-50%. High temperatures will remain above normal
through the period, with highs in the low 90s inland and upper 80s
along the coast.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

An upper level trough will amplify over the eastern CONUS Tuesday
and move off the Atlantic seaboard on Thursday. The associated weak
cold front will sweep across the CWA Tuesday/Tuesday night with
surface high pressure and drier airmass filtering in Wednesday
through the beginning of next weekend. Dew points are forecast to
drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s across all but the coastal areas
and southeast Big Bend. Pops will be highest on Tuesday (albeit
only 30%). Highs will be in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA were developing across northwest FL
early this afternoon, including in the vicinity of KTLH and KECP.
However, we expect these storms to become less numerous as the
afternoon goes on, as much drier air aloft mixes with the PBL.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. There is good agreement
among the NWP guidance in low- end MVFR Vis at KTLH around dawn
Sunday, and for low-end MVFR cigs at KVLD. In fact, some of the
guidance shows IFR cigs at KVLD, which will have to be monitored
in subsequent TAF packages.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds are expected to be light (less than 10 knots) and variable
through the middle of the week, with seas around one foot.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No problems.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

While rain is expected over the next few days, significant
rainfall amounts are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  91  72  90  71 /  10  30  20  40  20
Panama City   76  88  74  86  74 /  10  40  20  30  20
Dothan        71  92  70  90  69 /  10  30  20  20  20
Albany        71  92  70  90  70 /   0  20  10  30  20
Valdosta      71  90  70  88  68 /  10  20  20  50  20
Cross City    72  90  71  88  70 /  10  20  20  30  20
Apalachicola  75  87  74  85  74 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Barry/King
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...Barry/King
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Fieux