Tornado and Damaging Winds in Florida, May 20, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1020 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.UPDATE...
A linear shaped MCS with a squall line on its leading edge raced
across the Florida panhandle early this morning. This system is
now losing its forward momentum and weakening rapidly as it bumps
into the western periphery of a mid level ridge and encounters
much drier mid level air. This is evidenced by satellite which has
shown steady cloud top warming over the past hour or two. Out
ahead of this system across our area, areas of fog has lifted into
a low stratus deck for most locations north of a line from
Gainesville to St Augustine. This will delay the onset of heating
in these areas. But for locations along the I-75 corridor where
some clearing has already allowed temps to rebound to around 80
degrees, resulting in cape values already in excess of 1500 J/KG,
isolated strong storms will be possible as the leading edge of
the aforementioned MCS propagates towards those areas this
morning.

Going forward through the rest of the day, the forecast is
extremely difficult. The question becomes how much will the
cloud shield from the MCS limit heating and will it just delay the
heating or limit it for the entire day. These are huge questions
regarding how convection will ultimately evolve through the day
across our area. The thicker cloud cover and earlier onset of
precip (possibly in the form of stratiform rain for many
locations) could significantly impact the overall forecast today.
Given the latest trends, we will increase cloud cover and lower
temps a few degrees for most areas north of Gainesville and St.
Augustine. This will help lower the severe threat for these areas,
but as already mentioned, a few isolated strong to severe storms
will be possible across our southern zones as a complex of
thunderstorms moves through that area through early this
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
Very tough forecast today. The low stratus clouds impacting the
terminals across southeast Georgia and near the I-95 corridor this
morning will lift to VFR by noon but vfr ceilings will prevail
through most of the day as a convective cloud shield advances in
from the west. Strong storms will be most likely at GNV around the
noon hour today with IFR conditions and some gusty winds as a
complex of storms moves through. Timing storms today will be very
difficult and we will amend TAFS as we go through the day to
account for the changing weather conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
A broad surface trough will remain across the area this morning
with a weak pressure gradient and mainly light and variable winds.
Winds will veer to the southwest and increase some late tonight
ahead of an approaching frontal system but conditions will remain
below headline criteria. Storms however will increase this
afternoon and continue through the night across the waters with
locally higher seas and gusty winds in and near storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  68  84  65 /  80  70  40  30
SSI  78  71  84  69 /  60  60  50  40
JAX  84  69  86  68 /  60  50  50  40
SGJ  83  71  85  70 /  50  50  50  40
GNV  87  69  86  67 /  60  50  50  30
OCF  89  70  86  68 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Shuler/Combs/Combs

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
909 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-210745-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
909 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1015 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

FLZ021-022-035-201500-
GILCHRIST FL-COLUMBIA FL-SUWANNEE FL-
1015 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA...SUWANNEE
AND GILCHRIST COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM EDT...

AT 1014 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOWLING PARK TO 12 MILES
NORTH OF CROSS CITY. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIVE OAK...BELL...ICHETUCKNEE SPRING...FORT WHITE...WELLBORN...OBRIEN...
MCALPIN...LURAVILLE...BRANFORD...GUARANTO SPRINGS...HILDRETH AND HOUSTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3023 8324 3030 8285 2984 8263 2983 8266
      2970 8266 2962 8297 2970 8296 2970 8294
      2972 8296 2977 8295 2980 8292 2981 8293
      2983 8289 2989 8288 2989 8292 2996 8293
      2996 8295 3008 8307 3012 8323 3021 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 1414Z 263DEG 23KT 3015 8329 2982 8312

SHASHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1040 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 S OBRIEN              29.96N 82.93W
05/20/2016  M43 MPH          SUWANNEE           FL   MESONET

            EMERGENCY MANAGER RELAYED REPORT OF A 43 MPH WIND GUST AT
            BRANFORD HIGH SCHOOL WEATHERSTEM STATION.

&&

COMBS