Rip Current in Florida, March 23, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
917 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISING
THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S. EXPECTED SCT/BKN SC THROUGH
THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE MARCH. ADJUSTED NEAR-TERM GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS/MESOSCALE MODELS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES IN FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016/

AVIATION...
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY
LATE MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL 5KFT CIGS. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA TOWARD
SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST
WILL BE IN PLAY FOR ONE LAST DAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY
EASTERLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS FROM LAST EVENING SHOW A VERY DRY
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE WITH PWATS AROUND A HALF INCH ALONG WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL 850MB INVERSION. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF
THE ATMOSPHERE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FLOW VEERS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY. HOWEVER, THIS WON'T BE QUICK ENOUGH FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES TODAY. THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY REMAINS
DRY WITH ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT CONVERGENT ATLANTIC
SHOWER OR TWO, WITH PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO MENTION. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE INTO THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AROUND 80
DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOST NOTABLY WARMER RANGING FROM
THE LOW-MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TO LOW 70S ALONG
THE EAST COAST.

THURSDAY-UPCOMING WEEKEND...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
THINKING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INCREASINGLY ENERGETIC SOUTHERN JET STREAM ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
AND SHORTWAVES PIVOTING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
OVERALL, THIS LEADS TO A WET AND STORMY PATTERN TO END THE WEEK.

DEEP MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SLIDES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERS SOUTHEASTERLY. SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
STATE ON FRIDAY, BUT MODELS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN NOT MOVING IT
SOUTH OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO, INSTEAD OF A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
BROADLY CONVERGENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AIDED BY
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVES.

MID LEVELS WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -10C
TO -12C RANGE, AS DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 80S ON
THURS AND MID-UPPER 80S INTO THE WEEKEND AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. IN ADDITION TO BRINGING BACK THE SUMMER-LIKE
WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA, THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH LOW AN MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND CONVERGENCE, BUT SOME ACTIVITY
WILL LAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE ARE THE USUAL
DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT IN TIMING/LOCATION/STRENGTH, BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GULF/SOUTHEASTERN US ALONG
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

MARINE...FRESH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AROUND 15KTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND 10-15KTS OVER THE GULF. WINDS VEER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10KTS OR LESS ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND
EXPECT WINDS TO VEER MORE SW ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS 3-4FT OVER THE ATLANTIC
1-3FT GULF TODAY, SUBSIDING TO 1-2FT FOR ALL THE WATERS THURSDAY
ONWARDS.

MAIN CONCERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH CLOUD TO WATER STRIKES AND LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS AND WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  69  83  72 /  10  10  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  72  82  75 /  10  20  40  40
MIAMI            80  70  85  73 /  10  20  40  40
NAPLES           82  65  84  70 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....88/ALM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
353 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
232200-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI-DADE-METRO MIAMI-DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
353 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ALL
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STARTING THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS.

THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DECREASING INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.