Hail and Damaging Winds in Florida, March 17 to 18, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
853 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Forecast remains on track this morning. We are already seeing some
thunderstorms move in from the west. The 12Z KTAE sounding had
around 1100 J/KG of CAPE and dewpoints are already in the upper
60s. Hail will be the main threat today. Expect thunderstorms to
fill in through the day. Thunderstorms and cloud cover will keep
highs near 80 today.

&&

.Prev Discussion [720 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The upper level pattern is characterized by a broad trough roughly
over the northern half of the CONUS that contains multiple smaller
disturbances. These disturbances will churn through the broad trough
while very slowly pushing it eastward, keeping the cold front
stationary along the northern Gulf coast through Saturday.

Model precipitable water is around 1.5" through the period, which is
about 75% above normal for this time of year. We may see periods of
moderate to heavy rain with this system, but rainfall will be spread
out over several days, so flash flooding is not expected at this
time. Thunderstorms will be possible over the coastal waters and the
immediate coastline, where instability is highest, but we expect
mostly rain further inland. With persistent chances for rain and
cloudy skies, we will have moderate temperatures. Highs will be in
the 70s and lows are expected to stay in the upper 50s to low 60s.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

One of the smaller upper level disturbances will finally swing
southeastward Saturday night, helping to steer the cold front off to
our southeast overnight. A colder, drier air mass will quickly slide
into the area Sunday and highs will struggle to reach the mid-upper
60s early in the week with morning lows dropping to the upper 30s.
With high pressure in place and clear skies however, we'll warm up
quickly again, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s
returning by mid-week.

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]... IFR/LIFR conditions at most terminals due to
low clouds and fog until around 14z. Then, a band of showers and
thunderstorms will lay out from west to east across the Tri-State
region today ahead of a cold front. Timing and coverage of the
convection remain uncertain so VCSH and VCTS were included at all
terminals between 14z and 00z.

.Marine...

With a weak front draped across the northern Gulf coast, winds and
seas will remain low with chances for showers and thunderstorms
through Saturday. Saturday night, the front will finally push
through and strong northern winds will move in behind it, bringing
borderline advisory conditions to the coastal waters. Winds and seas
will fall below advisory criteria Monday morning and remain low
through at least the middle of the week.

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected through the
weekend.

.Hydrology...

Model rainfall has increased noticeably the last few runs. Storm
totals today through Saturday are now around 2-3" across the area.
Local hi-res ensemble guidance suggests that isolated areas may see
totals around 4-8", but chances for 6" in any 12 hour period remain
very low. Having the rainfall spread out over several days will help
mitigate flash flooding concerns, but these totals are expected to
cause some rises along our area rivers, some of which may return to
action stage or to flood stage. The lower Choctawhatchee and
Apalachicola basins are currently the fullest and most likely to be
impacted.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   81  62  76  61  75 /  50  40  60  60  60
Panama City   75  64  73  63  71 /  50  30  50  60  60
Dothan        80  58  74  59  70 /  40  50  60  60  50
Albany        80  58  73  58  72 /  40  50  60  60  60
Valdosta      81  61  76  60  75 /  50  50  60  60  60
Cross City    79  62  79  62  77 /  50  30  40  40  50
Apalachicola  74  64  74  64  73 /  50  30  50  50  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE