Moderate to heavy rain fell across and near the Hayden Pass burn scar, causing flash flooding in the watersheds; especially Wolf Creek, Butter Creek, Little Cottonwood Creek, and Big Cottonwood Creek. Damage occurred to structures along Big Cottonwood Creek along County Road 40.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.
Moderate to heavy rain fell across and near the Hayden Pass burn scar, causing flash flooding in the watersheds; especially Wolf Creek, Butter Creek, Little Cottonwood Creek, and Big Cottonwood Creek. Damage occurred to structures along Big Cottonwood Creek along County Road 40.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 23, 2:45 PM MST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 345 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 345 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016 ...Monsoonal Disturbance Headed This Way... A monsoonal disturbance is visible rotating over northwest New Mexico at this time. It is tracking to the northeast and will come across southern Colorado tonight. This disturbance has been a prolific shower and thunderstorm spawner over southwest Colorado this afternoon. Radar and satellite imagery show widespread showers and storms developing in an arc ahead of the advancing disturbance. Showers and storms over southern Colorado are likely to increase through the rest of the afternoon into the evening as the disturbance moves through. High resolution models have some activity continuing over the plains through or a even little past midnight. It appears that the heaviest and most widespread activity will be over the southwest mountains, central mountains and Pikes Peak region. Burn scars will need to be monitored as heavy rain potential continues. Other possible storm threats this evening will include lightning, wind gusts to around 50 mph and small hail. As we saw along the crest of the northern Sangre De Cristos last night, some snow will be possible across the higher elevations of the mountains tonight. The heaviest amounts are likely over the central mountains, where 1 to 3 inches could fall primarily above 11 thousand feet. For the rest of the mountains, local accumulations up to an inch or 2 are possible primarily above 11 thousand feet. A cold front will slip south through the plains tonight and be in place along the mountains by morning. This will bring cooler weather to the region tomorrow. Temperatures will be about 15 degrees cooler over the plains and about 5 to 10 degrees cooler elsewhere. With another monsoon disturbance working across the region and upslope flow in place across the plains, storm coverage should be pretty good tomorrow. Primary threats will be lightning, wind gusts to around 50 mph, heavy rain and small hail. Flash flooding will also be possible, particularly in and near area burn scars, including both the Hayden Pass and Waldo scars. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016 Relative active meteorological conditions are expected to continue over the majority of the longer term into at lest the weekend as adequate atmospheric moisture interacts with upper disturbances at times. Meteorological challenges during the longer term include pops/qpf and storm intensities at times in combination with temperatures. Latest longer term computer simulations...PV analysis and forecast model soundings continue to suggest that relatively moist zonal to southwestern upper flow will prevail into the weekend with upper ridging then developing into southwestern Colorado by next Tuesday. The combination of the available atmospheric moisture and upper disturbances will continue to allow daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms...the strongest of which will be capable of producing locally heavy rain/hail and gusty winds at times. As always...WFO Pueblo will monitor for locally heavy rainfall/localized flash flood potential as well as for any stronger thunderstorm activity during the longer term. In addition...some higher terrain snow also not out of the question at times and have depicted in grids. Both the ECMWF and GFS longer range computer simulations then indicate that drier and warmer conditions should develop over the forecast district by early next week as upper ridging builds into the area. Finally...near to below seasonal temperatures are projected from Thursday into Saturday with near to above seasonal temperatures developing over the majority of the forecast district from Sunday into next Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 345 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016 A monsoon disturbance will rotate north across the flight area this evening. This will bring another round of evening showers and thunderstorms to the district. Primary storm threats will include lightning, erratic thunderstorm outflow winds, heavy rain and possibly small hail. Conditions will primarily be VFR in most areas but there will be increasing areas of MVFR, IFR and LIFR conditions developing in precipitation through the evening. Models keep some activity going well into the evening across the plains, possibly not dissipating until after 06z. KCOS, KPUB and KALS will all see a chance for storms to be at or near the terminals this evening until around 06z.&& .PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 1137 AM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016 COZ058>089-093>099-241745- WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT- LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT- EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT- WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT- CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT- WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000FT- SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT- SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT- LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT- UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT- EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT- DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT- ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT- SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY- NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT- NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT- SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT- SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT- NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500FT- WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT- WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT- WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT- WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT- TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT- CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY- NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT- COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET- WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT- TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT- CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY- EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY- EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY- LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY- 1137 AM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHERE SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR BURN SCARS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. STORMS WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. ALL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTING...AND GUSTY WINDS. ON WEDNESDAY...A COUPLE OF STORMS EAST OF I-25 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. ON THURSDAY...1 OR 2 STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION. AREA BURN SCARS...INCLUDING THE WALDO CANYON AND HAYDEN PASS SCARS...WILL BE AT PARTICULAR RISK FOR FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PEOPLE IN AND AROUND THESE FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 50/50
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
318 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016
COZ081-084-085-232200-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND
11000 FT CO-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT
CO-
318 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM MDT...
AT 317 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EL PASO COUNTY...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.
LAT...LON 3884 10498 3912 10502 3912 10457 3862 10451
3861 10489 3880 10489
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 173DEG 6KT 3896 10487
28The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 136 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:50 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding occurred in the Big Cottonwood Creek watershed, damaging structures along County Road 40. No dollar amount of damage was available at this time.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 645816.