The Pony Wildfire was started by lightning around 0245 PDT on 06/07/16. As of the last report on 28/0430 PDT, the fire covered 2858 acres and was 63 percent contained.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
The Pony Wildfire was started by lightning around 0245 PDT on 06/07/16. As of the last report on 28/0430 PDT, the fire covered 2858 acres and was 63 percent contained. 17.5 million dollars were spent on firefighting efforts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 7, 12:07 AM PST, 1 hour 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
107 AM PDT TUE JUN 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...07/00Z NAM/GFS/EC in.
The northern hemisphere projection shows a progressive six wave
pattern around the globe. The Medford CWA is currently in between
an offshore long wave trough and a broad ridge over the Western
U.S.
However...a closer look shows a weak low now over Idaho with short
waves rotating around it. This low...combined with some difluence
aloft and precipitable water values of 1.34 inches on the 07/00Z
KMFR sounding all combined to support thunderstorm activity over
the area Monday afternoon and evening. Those storms have since
dissipated and it is relatively quiet at this time under partly
cloudy skies.
The low over Idaho and the offshore trough will move a bit
farther east Tuesday. This will turn flow aloft more westerly.
Inland temperatures will be slightly cooler. Model soundings
indicate there will still be plenty of moisture around. Would
expect the most favored thunderstorm area to be farther east as
well...but lifted indices indicate that the focus will once again
be over the Cascades and Siskiyous as well as the upper east side.
That's what is in the current forecast...so will pretty much let
that one ride tonight.
The eastward progression will continue into Wednesday. By that
time the long wave trough will be just offshore with increasing
southwest flow aloft over the Medford CWA. Expect increasing cloud
cover and significantly cooler temperatures over the west side.
Model sounding indicate that precipitable water values will drop
to around 0.75 inches...which is indicative of the cooler air.
Wednesday highs will be 10-15 degrees cooler than the Tuesday
highs over the westside and around 5 degrees cooler than the east
side...which should have significantly less cloud cover. All that
points to the area of favored thunderstorm development shifting to
the east side...and sure enough the model lifted indices indicate
that this will be the case. Nice when it all lines up like that.
The current forecast reflects this thinking as well...but there
are some coverage discontinuities in the current forecast that
will be cleaned up later tonight.
The trough will arrive at the coast Thursday...but it's inland
progression will be slowed by short wave diving down the back side
of the trough. Inland highs Thursday will be 5-10 degrees cooler
than the Wednesday highs across the CWA. This cooling will
stabilize the air mass and no thunderstorms are expected Thursday.
However...the trough will support some shower activity...
especially near the coast.
Long term discussion from the Monday afternoon AFD...Friday June
10, 2016 through Monday, June 13, 2016. Confidence remains fairly
good through the extended forecast period as models remain in
decent agreement. A strong upper trough axis moves through the
area Friday into Saturday, and as a result, it will be cool and
showery over the area. Snow levels will fall as low as 5000 feet
Saturday morning, so there may even be a big of snow in the
mountains. A flat ridge develops over the PacNW Sunday into
Monday, and temperatures will probably rebound to around normal.
However, all long range models remain in agreement that an even
stronger system moves into the PacNW mid next week with even
cooler, wetter weather. Model consistency is remarkably high for
such an abnormal low pressure system in days 7-10, so confidence
is at least moderate that it will actually come to pass. -Wright
&&
.AVIATION...For the 07/06Z TAF cycle...VFR conditions will continue
into Tuesday afternoon with the exception of IFR low clouds and fog
over the coastal waters that will spread to the coast later tonight
then retreat away from the beaches late Tuesday morning.
Thunderstorms will develop again on Tuesday afternoon...mainly from
the southern Oregon Cascades and Siskiyous northeastward into
northern portions of Klamath and Lake counties. These will be fast
moving storms and may become severe. Low clouds and fog will return
to the coast once again on Tuesday evening. -DW/SK
&&
.MARINE...Updated 600 PM PDT Mon 6 June 2016...Gales south of Cape
Blanco have reached a peak but will persist for the remainder of
this evening with steep to very steep seas. Seas will diminish late
tonight into Tuesday afternoon though the combination of winds waves
and fresh swell will continue to dominate. There is now better
model agreement that low pressure centered southwest of the waters
will create a reversal to southerly winds. This reversal will
develop in the southern portion of the waters during Tuesday
afternoon and spread northward through the waters during Tuesday
night into Wednesday...with the exception of persistent northerly
winds in the far outer portion of the waters. The southerlies are
expected to be mainly at 10 to 20 knots with the strongest winds
from 8 to 30 NM offshore during late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. This pattern is likely to result in low clouds and patchy
drizzle. Light to moderate north winds will return Wednesday night
then light to moderate winds and seas are likely into the weekend as
a series of disturbances move through the waters. -DW
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Tuesday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ376.
15/15/15The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Pony Wildfire was started by lightning around 0245 PDT on 06/07/16. As of the last report on 28/0430 PDT, the fire covered 2858 acres and was 63 percent contained. 17.5 million dollars were spent on firefighting efforts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in California, June 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 630794.