A weak disturbance within a broader trough along the West Coast initiated locally strong thunderstorms over San Bernardino County. The storms produced up to 3 inches of rain in the High Deserts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGX wrote it up.
A weak disturbance within a broader trough along the West Coast initiated locally strong thunderstorms over San Bernardino County. The storms produced up to 3 inches of rain in the High Deserts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Diego, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 1, 12:44 PM PST, 46 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
144 PM PDT FRI JUL 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoonal moisture and instability aloft will continue the
possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions
of the mountains and deserts through this evening. A low pressure
trough along the west coast will lower high temperatures to normal
or below seasonal normals, create breezy southwesterly winds in
the mountains and deserts, a moderate to deep marine layer and dry
weather Saturday through next Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
At 1 PM PDT, water vapor imagery displayed an upper-level ridge
over Texas, and an upper-level trough over Northern California.
Visible satellite showed low clouds along the coast, and cumulus
over mountain peaks. Composite radar showed a thunderstorm just
southeast of Big Bear, and a thunderstorm south of Barstow. A 12
C marine layer inversion on the 01/1200 UTC KNKX sounding will
make it difficult for areas along the beach and over the waters to
clear today. Most unstable CAPE of 500-1000 J/KG, precipitable
water of 1.1-1.3 inches and diurnal heating will combine to
continue a chance of thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts
through early evening. Heavy downpours, urban and small stream
flooding, gusty winds and frequent lightning are possible where
storms develop. Isolated flash flooding is possible where
stationary storms develop.
The aforementioned trough will linger along the West Coast this
weekend into the middle of next week. This will help lower high
temperatures to near normal to slightly below normal today through
the middle of next week. Dry SW flow aloft will eliminate chances
for afternoon thunderstorms tomorrow through next Thursday. A deep
marine layer will push night/morning low clouds and fog far into
the valleys tonight. The marine layer will become slightly more
shallow through next week, limiting the extent of the clouds and
fog into the valleys each night. Breezy southwesterly winds will
develop each afternoon through mountain passes and over the
deserts.
&&
.AVIATION...
012017Z...Coast/Valleys...Through 02/0000 UTC, mostly SKC and
unrestricted vis, except within 3-5 SM of the coast where BKN-OVC
clouds 1300-2300 ft MSL will likely linger. 02/0000-1500 UTC,
stratus re-developing 20-25 SM inland and perhaps up to 25-40 SM
inland with bases 1100-1800 ft MSL and tops around 2500 ft MSL.
Areas of 3-5 SM vis over inland mesas. Local vis AOB 1 SM possible
over far inland valleys, such as KRNM and KRIV. Forecast confidence
of stratus occurrence and timing at KSAN, KCRQ and KSNA is high,
with low-to-moderate confidence for KONT and low confidence on
exactly how far inland the stratus will spread.
Mountains/Deserts...Isol-sct thunderstorms/showers in the mountains,
high deserts and possibly lower deserts through 02/0300 UTC with SCT-
BKN cloud bases around 10000 ft MSL, tops around 20000 ft MSL and CB
tops to 40000 ft MSL. Otherwise, mostly SKC and unrestricted vis
will prevail through Saturday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Tuesday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Latest nearshore buoy reports show a 4-5 ft/17 second swell from 200
degrees. Surfline shows 4-7 foot surf in Orange County and 3-5 foot
surf in San Diego county being reported today. Surf around these
heights, with locally higher sets, should continue this afternoon,
along with strong rip currents. Although the swell and surf will
gradually lower Saturday through Independence Day, with large beach
crowds expected and rip currents still likely a concern, hazardous
swimming conditions are likely to continue. The Beach Hazards
Statement has been extended through Mon July 4.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is requested for San Bernardino County.
Although activation is not requested for Riverside, San Diego or
Orange counties at this time, weather spotters are encouraged to
report significant weather conditions as they occur.
&&
.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Orange County
Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
PZ...None.
&&
PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HarrisonThe Santa Ana Mts radar (KSOX), 92 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:29 UTC.
1 flood, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding was reported along Arastre Road in Baldwin Lake.
Up to 3 inches of rain fell between Helendale and Victorville, causing significant flooding. Highway 66 was closed near Bryman.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in California, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 652419, 652422.