Drought in California, February 1 to 29, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 PM PST SUN JAN 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE
AREAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AROUND
3000 FEET AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL. A WARMING TREND AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW AND A FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND ADJACENT SIERRA. THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OCCURRED THIS MORNING OVER FRESNO AND MADERA
COUNTIES. THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHIFTED SOUTHWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE SOUTH VALLEY AND TULARE AND TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS. MANY LOCALES IN THE SJV REPORTED HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL TODAY WITH LOTS OF REPORTS OF ROAD FLOODING ACROSS THE
VALLEY. QPF RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY WERE HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVED ONSHORE OVER SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES OVER THE TULARE MOUNTAINS AND KERN COUNTY. HOWEVER RAIN
RATES APPEAR ON A DECREASING TREND ATM.

BEST THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE OVER TULARE AND TEHACHAPIS THIS
EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WERE REPORTED DOWN TO 3500 FEET IN MARIPOSA
LATE THIS MORNING. COLD AIR BEHIND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
LEVELS THIS EVENING. A WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS IN KERN COUNTY ABOVE 4000 FEET. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000'
COULD SEE 4-8" AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ALSO FORECAST AT PASS
LEVELS THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 2500 LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DIMINISHES. RAINFALL IN THE VALLEY FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH BUT MAINLY TOWARDS THE EAST AND SOUTH PARTS OF THE SOUTH
VALLEY.

A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AROUND LAS VEGAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STRONG ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND INTO THE DESERT. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN AFFECT
FOR THE DESERT IN SOUTHEAST KERN COUNTY. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS STRONG IN THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH AND BELOW
THE COASTAL RANGE PASSES INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO MONDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT INLAND OVER THE THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE LEAVING A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WARMING AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN LATER IN THE
WEEK INCREASING THE CHANCE OF TULE FOG ACROSS THE SJV.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH
AROUND 08Z MONDAY...OTHERWISE MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR DUE TO UPSLOPE
CLOUDINESS AFTER 08Z MON. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN PRECIP OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...CLEARING TO THE NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY AFTER 06Z
MONDAY. HOWEVER...AFTER 08Z MONDAY...IFR DUE TO CIGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATONS IN KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH POSSIBLE RA/SN SHOWERS
CONTINUING. WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR HIGHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SIERRA CREST AND THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-31       75:1984     39:1969     55:1963     26:1949
KFAT 02-01       73:1991     43:1939     54:1905     25:1950
KFAT 02-02       74:1928     44:1903     57:1907     26:1950

KBFL 01-31       82:1984     45:1969     57:1963     23:1902
KBFL 02-01       76:1928     45:1965     55:1963     24:1902
KBFL 02-02       80:1928     44:1971     61:1958     23:1893
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY CAZ097.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ096.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR
THE CAZ095.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST MONDAY CAZ089-091.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST MONDAY CAZ098.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST MONDAY CAZ099.

&&

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...BSO
PREV DISCUSSION...DCH
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
823 PM PST SUN JAN 31 2016

CAZ090-020430-
EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
823 PM PST SUN JAN 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EAST CENTRAL SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ089-020430-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
823 PM PST SUN JAN 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WEST CENTRAL SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.