Flash Flood and Flooding in California, December 31, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
412 AM PST Sat Dec 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm will track southward along the California coast today and
bring rain and higher elevation snow to the district through
this evening. Snow level could lower to just below the 4000 foot
level. Mostly dry weather expected on New Year's Day. Colder
conditions could be seen Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The district is now in between two storms moving through the west
coast. The first storm which came up from the south, gave
precipitation to the southern half of the district. The next
storm, drop toward Central California, but remaining along the
coast, during the day this Saturday. The first storm managed to
drop considerable amounts of precipitation to the southern of the
district on Friday. While areas from Fresno northward remained
dry, locations across Tulare and Kern Counties received upwards of
a half an inch of rain. At this point, the increase in humidity
allowed much of the San Joaquin Valley to fog up early this
morning.

Dense fog is currently in effect from Merced to Kern Counties
along the San Joaquin Valley as weak ridging exist across the
area. A dense fog advisory will remain in effect until 10 am this
morning. Even in areas which received almost no rain, visibility
reports have been observed at between 1/16 of a mile to near ¼ of
a mile. These condition will persist across the area until the
arrival of the next storm. Currently, the storm was still over
Northern California this morning and traveling south. Timing of
this storm should have affecting Central California after 10 am
PST with the bulk of the storm affecting the area between 4 pm PST
and 10 pm PST.

The next storm is a much colder storm with freezing levels
lowering behind its arrival. By this evening, models prog the
freezing level lowering to briefly reach the 4000 foot level,
which places snow over the higher peaks of Kern County. This level
will also affect the Grapevine area of Interstate-5 in Kern
County. Therefore, a winter weather advisory as snow could briefly
fall across Kern County above 4000 feet under Convective unstable
conditions. A mention of thunderstorm has also been place across
the Kern County Mountains and Deserts for today.

The next storm should provide the area with between a tenth of
near one half of an inch below the snow line. Above the snow line,
as much as six inches can be observed. While southern California
will favor the heavy snow, convective snow could provide the area
with isolated amounts above six inches. The storm is expected to
begin exiting the region on Sunday with lingering precipitation
and clouds banking up near Bakersfield, the Grapevine and
Tehachapi on Sunday. Another storm behind the second storm is now
progged to stall over the Pacific Northwest and Northern
California. While not providing the area with significantly cold
temperatures, zonal flow pattern could allow for additional
moisture to enter the area. The storm may affect Central
California toward late Tuesday and continue through Wednesday and
even Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
In the San Joaquin Valley, widespread LIFR/VLIFR visibility in fog
through 18Z Saturday. Precipitation developing after 18Z with areas
of MVFR and local IFR conditions. In the Southern Sierra Nevada and
Tehachapi Mountains, areas of mountain obscuring IFR ceilings in low
clouds and precipitation after 18Z. In the Kern County Desert, VFR
through 21Z, then areas of MVFR and local IFR conditions in rain.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Saturday December 31 2016... Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Kern (Greater Frazier
Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight PST
tonight CAZ095.

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning CAZ089>092.

&&

public...Molina
avn/fw...DCH
synopsis...Molina

weather.gov/hanford