Wildfire in California, August 1 to 9, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
215 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure continues to bring hot temperatures through
the weekend. Afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms
are possible along the Sierra crest each day through early next week
and will possibly spread into the Kern County mountains and desert.
Some relief from the intense heat is expected by mid-week.

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.DISCUSSION...Today marks the ninth consecutive day of triple
digit heat in the San Joaquin Valley and the longest stretch of
it so far this Summer. While it appears the hottest days in this
current heat wave are behind us, residents in the valley and
lower foothills will still have to endure at least two more days
of 100-degree heat.

The upper level ridge responsible for the hot weather has weakened
somewhat since Thursday but is still anchored firmly over central
California this afternoon. The models nudge the center of this
ridge eastward to the Four Corners region by Tuesday then develop
an upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast during
midweek. There is high confidence now that this trough will
finally bring an end to widespread triple digit heat in the San
Joaquin Valley and lower foothills later this week. Temperatures
will trend slightly lower during the next several days. Friday,
for sure, will be the first day since the 21st that afternoon
temperatures remain below the century mark valley-wide. The upper
level trough is forecast to move inland over California by then
accompanied by a healthy onshore flow of ocean cooled air into the
valley and lower foothills. The good news is that the models keep
this trough positioned near the California coast through next
weekend with a continuation of an onshore flow and additional
marine influxes into the San Joaquin Valley. If the marine layer
along the central California coast deepens to 2500 feet or
greater, high temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley could cool
into the upper 80s to lower 90s by the end of the week. Whatever
the case, max temps will be much closer to normal by Friday and
Saturday. The late week trough will also bring a few degrees of
synoptic cooling to the higher terrain, including the Kern County
desert, where high temps will fall shy of the century mark in
many locations Friday and Saturday.

Moisture that has resided over the Sierra and has contributed to
the development of isolated afternoon thunderstorms near the crest
will be swept eastward into the Great Basin by Thursday. And so
will the haze and smoke that has resided over much of the CWA
lately. The trough will also bring an increase in westerly winds
through and below the Kern County mountain passes and along the
west side of the San Joaquin Valley Thursday through Friday.
During this period, winds could gust to 35 mph or higher through
Pacheco Pass and up to 45 mph through and below Tehachapi Pass and
Walker Pass in Kern county.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected near the Sierra Crest until 03z
Monday and again between 19z Monday and 03z Tuesday. An isolated
thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out over the Kern County
mountains and desert through 03z Monday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail across much of the central California interior during
the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued
an Air Quality Alert due to smoke impacts in San Joaquin,
Stanislaus, Merced, Madera, Fresno, Kings, Tulare, and the Valley
Portion of Kern Counties from the Soberanes Fire. For details,
please refer to the SFOAQAHNX.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ098-099.

&&

public...Durfee
avn/fw...Molina
synopsis...WP

weather.gov/hanford