A classic heavy rain pattern set up over the Mid-South during the period of March 9th, 2016 to March 13th, 2016. A cold front stretched from Nebraska to Texas on the morning of March 8th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A classic heavy rain pattern set up over the Mid-South during the period of March 9th, 2016 to March 13th, 2016. A cold front stretched from Nebraska to Texas on the morning of March 8th. The front moved southeastward and stalled across Southeast Missouri as an upper level low remained stationary over Texas. A very moist atmosphere was in place over the Mid-South south of this boundary. Several weak low pressure centers developed and moved along the stalled front. As a result, periods of heavy rain, up to an inch per hour in some cases, fell over the same locations. Over the several day stretch, the front fluctuated at times shifting the heaviest band of rain. The storm total rainfall over the 5 day period ranged from four to ten inches. The heavy rain caused widespread flash flooding and many roads were closed as a result. In addition, numerous streams and small rivers overflowed their banks.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 9, 5:38 PM CST, 2 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
538 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...HEAVY RAIN EVENT WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDSOUTH. TWO TO FOUR INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE DELTA FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWESTWARD. A DEEP UPPER LOW IS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS SETUP IS PUMPING
TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY FROM
EAST TEXAS NORTHEAST THOUGH THE MIDSOUTH. A STEADY STREAM OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE
MID-SOUTH. HEAVY RAIN COVERS MUCH OF THE DELTA ATTM WITH FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN ARKANSAS.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARD HEAVY RAIN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVERNIGHT AS A STREAM OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO THE
REGION. PWATS OF 1.75 INCHES OR MORE ADVECT INTO THE MID-SOUTH
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING HEAVY RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OVERNIGHT. THIS CONFIRMED WELL BY THE LATEST HRRR DATA. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH PLACEMENT SEEMS GOOD ATTM. THE NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND START TO PUSH IT EAST ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
SHIFT THE HEAVY RAIN EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH UP TO ADDITIONAL 6 INCHES
ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS AND 3-4 INCHES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
INCLUDING MEMPHIS. SOME PLACES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL SEE OVER
10 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BASICALLY JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA...RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES...MAY NOT GET QUITE AS MUCH
AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH AREAS ALONG THE MS RIVER PICKING UP
MORE. EITHER WAY EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF RIVER FLOODING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND
SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE DEPARTS. THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAN THE GFS/NAM. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO
THE MIDSOUTH WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NOT A FOCUSING MECHANISM IN PLACE LIKE
THE CURRENT BOUNDARY HOWEVER GIVEN THE ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ON A ISOLATED LEVEL. THE GROUND WILL
BE SATURATED AND RIVER/STREAM FLOWS WILL ALREADY BE HIGH SO ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD BE A PROBLEM. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED. ON THE HEELS OF THIS UPPER LOW THAT TREKKED
FROM MEXICO IS ANOTHER UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH ON TO THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY. THIS NEXT UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH WITH YET MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXIT THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY.
TUESDAY...DRY AND VERY WARM...MAYBE 80.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT JBR...MKL AND MEM. CIGS WILL BE VARIED...BUT
LOWEST/LIFR WILL BE AT JBR. BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR/IFR VSBY WILL
EXIST IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO TUP
WITH VFR CIGS ALSO LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR. A SMALL SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TONIGHT...ALLOWING NORTHEAST WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH AT MEM AND MKL. BELIEVE THE
BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR JBR WITH LIGHT A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
QUITMAN-TATE-TUNICA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 412 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-101215- ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY- COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR- DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE- LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION- PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON- TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 412 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...RIVERS WILL BEGIN TO RISE. PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE BLACK AND ST. FRANCIS RIVER BASINS NEED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS AND POTENTIAL FLOOD WARNINGS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLOODING ALONG THE BLACK RIVER...CACHE RIVER...ST. FRANCIS RIVER BASIN AS WELL AS THE WHITE RIVER IN PHILLIPS COUNTY. PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS AND POTENTIAL FLOOD WARNINGS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND ANY FLOODING ARE WELCOME. KRM
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 34 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:42 UTC.
2 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several roads and streets were closed due over six inches of flood water covering them.
Highway 1 was closed due to flash flooding.
Heavy rain caused flooding in the Blytheville area. Franklin Road was flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, March 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 625934, 625939, 627552.