Tornado and Hail in Arkansas, December 17, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
520 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016

.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions with areas of MVFR ceilings this
evening and tonight. An area of showers with a few thunderstorms
will gradually move southeast, initially over central and eastern
AR, then gradually over south to southeast through the evening to
tonight. The cold front will change any light rain to sleet then
some light snow. Winds ahead of the front will be south to southwest
at 10 to 20 mph, then winds will become northwest to north at 5 to
15 with gusts to around 20 mph behind the front. Low level wind
shear will be along and with the front. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 300 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday Night
Um, let's see...Tornado Watch, Wind Advisory, Winter Weather
Advisory, Wind Chill Advisory. It must be December in Arkansas
again.

Surface observations show Arctic Frontal Boundary extending from
the Missouri Bootheel to between Russellville and Hot Springs...to
between De Queen and Mena (if you go by the wind shift and slight
temperature gradient). Colder air is still lagging a bit trying
to get over the Ozarks and Ouachitas, though it is slowly
funneling down the River Valley. Wind shift should be through the
metro area in a couple of hours, and out of the region late this
evening or during the overnight hours. The cold, though will be
what smacks us in the face late tonight, with most locations
probably seeing a drop on the order of 50 degrees or so (Harrison's
already down 30 degrees from 4 AM).

Until the front clears out, showers and thunderstorms are likely
in areas along and ahead of the front, with some strong/severe
storms possible. Lots of low level shear is present, and there
have been a few breaks in clouds today, which has helped increase
instability. Primary threat from any severe thunderstorms will be
wind damage, as things evolve more into a linear structure.
However, any discrete cells ahead of the line could be capable of
producing a weak, brief tornado, and for this reason, a Tornado
Watch has been posted for much of the eastern half of Arkansas
until 9 PM.

Now, that brings me to my next issue...winter weather. Still
thinking that any impacts would be minor, if at all. Most likely
area to see winter precipitation will be the north and northwest
through late this evening. As the upper wave moves across southern
Missouri and northern Arkansas this afternoon and evening,
shallow, light precipitation will accompany it. Transition should
be a light freezing rain/sleet mix, to sleet/snow...to snow before
ending late tonight. Accumulations of freezing rain would likely
be a few hundredths of an inch, and snow/sleet accumulations
generally less than half an inch. Further south/east, transition
of precip will be occurring as the moisture exits the region, so
at this point, I would think impacts would be even less than
northern Arkansas.

Next issue is winds. Pressure gradient with this system has been
nothing short of impressive, and winds will remain elevated
through Sunday. Have gone ahead with a wind advisory for tonight
for most areas, with the exception being the Ouachita Mountains
and the far north. Gradient should relax on Sunday morning...which
brings me to the next issue...wind chill.

Wind chill values of zero to -5 are likely over the northwest and
far north counties late tonight into the morning Sunday, and with
gusty winds occurring, have continued the wind chill advisory.
Wind chills will be similar in that area on Sunday night/early
Monday morning, but winds will not be as much of an issue.

Aaaaand, last, but certainly not least, temperatures...
Most areas will stay below freezing on Sunday. Sunday night should
be the coldest, with some areas in the north and northwest
bottoming out near zero (especially in valleys).

Okay...time to hand it off to the next shift...
&&
.LONG TERM...Monday Through Saturday
Lots going on in the short term so I will make this brief. A dry
extended forecast until Sat. A weak system, i.e....cold front,
will move through Wed and will basically just keep temps from
warming up. A potentially stronger and more complex system may
affect the area next weekend as a large broad 5H trough sets up
across the western US. It appears the cold front associated with
this feature may move through the area Sat and bring a chance of
showers or storms with considerably colder conditions on tap for
Sunday. For now, included slight chance pops for Sat and Sat
night.

Temps warm into the 40s Tuesday and then average around 50 degrees
for highs across the state Wed through Sat. Nighttime temps will
moderate a bit and run close to seasonal normals with lows mainly in
the 30s.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The biggest fire weather issue will be low humidity during the
afternoons on Monday and Tuesday, with minimums in the 30 percent
range or less, particularly in the western portions of Arkansas.
Toward mid and late week...moisture will increase out ahead of the
next storm system.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     19  27   9  32 /  60   0   0   0
Camden AR         30  36  17  38 /  70  10   0   0
Harrison AR       10  20   2  31 /  60   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    25  33  15  37 /  50   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  26  32  14  34 /  60  10   0   0
Monticello AR     30  34  16  36 /  90  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      23  32  10  38 /  40   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  13  23   5  29 /  50   0   0   0
Newport AR        21  27   9  30 /  70   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     28  32  17  34 /  90  10   0   0
Russellville AR   22  28  12  35 /  40   0   0   0
Searcy AR         24  29  10  31 /  60  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      26  31  15  32 /  80  10   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday FOR
Arkansas-Bradley-Calhoun-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Grant-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-
Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pope-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Searcy-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST
tonight FOR Baxter-Boone-Fulton-Izard-Marion-Newton-Searcy-Sharp-
Stone.

Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Sunday
FOR Baxter-Boone-Fulton-Izard-Marion-Newton-Searcy-Stone.
&&

Short Term...57 / Long Term...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
320 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-181100-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN-
BRADLEY-DREW-
320 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHERE THE AIR IS A BIT MORE
UNSTABLE. A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE A BRIEF
TORNADO COULD OCCUR.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A
BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS OR
JUST SOME FLURRIES OR ICE PELLETS BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT.

WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER AIR COMING IN BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COLDER WITH A 30 TO NEARLY 40 DEGREE DROP IN SOME AREAS. IN ADDITION
TO THE ARCTIC PLUNGE...GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE SUB-
ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

THE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE BARELY GETTING INTO THE 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS WELL. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO FEATURE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
EVEN THOUGH THE ACTUAL WINDS WILL BE LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...NOW WOULD BE THE TIME TO REVIEW YOUR COLD WEATHER
SAFETY INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LZK.

56/57