Enough monsoon moisture remained over northern Arizona for isolated thunderstorms with heavy rain.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Enough monsoon moisture remained over northern Arizona for isolated thunderstorms with heavy rain.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 25, 9:30 AM MST, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 930 AM MST THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered thunderstorms each day through Saturday, along with cooler than normal daytime temperatures. A drying and warming trend is expected late in the weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...The sounding this morning had 0.56 inch PW and an inversion starting at around 525 mb. There is decent CAPE once surface heating develops. The convective temperature is only 70F. There is a clockwise circulation over eastern Arizona today so storm motion will not be uniform. Current forecast is in good shape and may only need a few minor updates. && .PREV DISCUSSION /336 AM MST/...Skies have cleared over most of Coconino and Yavapai counties at 3 AM with scattered mid clouds lingering over eastern Arizona. Low and mid level flow will turn more from the south and southwest today and this will bring a slight increase in moisture to areas along/north of the Mogollon Rim, with values south of the rim about where they were yesterday. A weak disturbance will move eastward along the AZ/UT border later this afternoon and overnight, providing some lift as well as keeping mid- level temperatures colder than normal (which increases instability). The day should start out sunny for much of the area also. These factors point to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening, with the best chances from the Mogollon Rim northward. Convection could continue well into the evening and even overnight, especially the northern third of the state. Still expect some isolated storms for Gila/Yavapai county but the steering flow is not as favorable to bring storms into this area as it was yesterday. Deep layer wind shear is on the weak side most of the day, increasing a bit this evening, so an isolated strong storm is possible with hail and gusty winds the main threats. Chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms continues Friday and Saturday, then a decrease in moisture and warmer temperatures is expected Sunday through Tuesday as high pressure builds over the region. A few isolated storms are still possible, mainly for higher terrain areas in eastern AZ. The flow could become more favorable for increasing moisture and storms again by mid week. && .AVIATION...For the 18z package...Scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily along and north of a line extending through Prescott and Payson. General storm motion to the northeast. Otherwise...light winds with scattered ceilings 7000 feet above ground level. Activity becoming isolated overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...MAS/JJ AVIATION...MCCOLLUM For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 407 AM MST THU AUG 25 2016 AZZ004>018-037>040-260300- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 407 AM MST THU AUG 25 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA, COMBINING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PRODUCING HAIL, GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING AND EVEN OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1104 AM MST THU AUG 25 2016 AZZ012-013-251845- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY AZ- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY AZ- 1104 AM MST THU AUG 25 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCONINO AND NAVAJO COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM MST... AT 1102 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR METEOR CRATER...OR 17 MILES WEST OF WINSLOW...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WINSLOW... METEOR CRATER AND INTERSTATE 40 FROM MILEPOST 238 TO 258. LAT...LON 3501 11109 3515 11108 3515 11070 3494 11071 TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 275DEG 9KT 3507 11101 MAS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
The Meteor Crater Visitor Center reported that at least 4 inches of water was running across Meteor Crater Road in places. Radar estimated that several inches of rain fell across the area.
Heavy rain produced flowing water across low water crossings in the Dewey area. This included the Agua Fria River, Highway 69, and other local roads.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 659403, 659405.