A 70 knot jet streak moved over the area during the early morning hours and triggered thunderstorms with heavy rain.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A 70 knot jet streak moved over the area during the early morning hours and triggered thunderstorms with heavy rain.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 10, 9:20 PM MST, 5 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 920 PM MST WED AUG 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Expect a drying and warming trend to develop in the next few days, but especially over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...It is possible that being directly under a 70kt jet streak today hampered things dynamically, instead of helping. It is also quite possible that there was just a little too much shear and a little too much drying above 500mb, hard to tell. Either way, the situation did not pan out as planned and the day was on the quiet side. We have decreased pops overnight and cancelled the Flash Flood Watch as a result. Updates are already published. The next several days will feature a noticeable drying trend, with any appreciable chances for wetting rainfall ending after Thursday. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z package...SCT -SHRA/-TSRA with ISOLD +TSRA will slowly diminish after 02z. Expect MVFR and IFR conditions in SHRA/TSRA. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA will develop again after 17Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 830 PM MST WED AUG 10 2016 AZZ004>018-037>040-110415- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 910 AM MST WED AUG 10 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ON THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1016 PM MST WED AUG 10 2016 AZZ008-037-110545- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS AZ-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS AZ- 1016 PM MST WED AUG 10 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 1045 PM MST... AT 1016 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PONDEROSA PARK...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PRESCOTT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PRESCOTT...PRESCOTT VALLEY...PONDEROSA PARK... PRESCOTT GATEWAY MALL...WALKER...INDIAN HILL WEST PRESCOTT... GROOM CREEK SUBDIVISION...YAVAPAI COUNTY COURTHOUSE PRESCOTT... OAK KNOLL VILLAGE...LOWER WOLF CREEK CAMPGROUND... WHITE SPAR CAMPGROUND... UPPER WOLF CREEK GROUP CAMPGROUND AND LYNX LAKE DAM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3438 11251 3448 11262 3465 11242 3451 11227 TIME...MOT...LOC 0516Z 227DEG 18KT 3450 11249 MCS
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 22 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:58 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain from thunderstorms caused flash flooding which deposited large logs and rocks across area roads.
Heavy rain over the Cedar Fire scar caused flash flooding and debris flow over Highway 60. The water pushed large boulders over Highway 60.
Heavy rain over the Cedar Fire scar caused flash flooding in Cedar Creek. The water over topped the K-rails that were put in place after the fire to prevent flood damage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 658829, 658828, 658827.