Blizzard in Alaska, March 4 to 5, 2016

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
226 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 04/06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
AND THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS OUT TO THE MID
RANGE...BUT THE PATTERN OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BECOMES PRETTY BENIGN
BEYOND 100 HOURS OR SO. WILL USE THE SAME METHODOLOGY THAT WE
HAVE USED THE LAST FEW DAYS AND MAKE ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE
FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...533 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 135W WILL SLIDE SOUTH
TO 500 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BY MONDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC. A 515 DAM LOW OVER THE
UPPER KUSKOKWIM DRAINAGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST TO BE
OVER BRISTOL BAY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER DUTCH HARBOR BY
SUNDAY MORNING. A 538 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PRIBILOFS ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA MOVING WEST TO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 503 DAM LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEAR 48N 150W WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO BE NEAR
48N 140W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 509 DAM...THEN DISSIPATES MON.
AS THE LOW OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM SLIDES SOUTHWEST THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
INTERIOR TONIGHT...EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND PERSIST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. AT 850 HPA...ONE LAST
DAY OF COOLING...MAYBE ANOTHER DEGREE...THEN THE SLOW WARM UP
BEGINS AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE WILL START GETTING
PINCHED A BIT TODAY AS A 976 MB LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE COAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA...AND THE 1031 MB
HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC DRIFTS A LITTLE SOUTH AND RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES STRENGTHENS A BIT. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD ON
INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT STARTING LATE
SUNDAY. THE PATTERN OVER THE MAINLAND FALLS APART TUESDAY AND
WINDS OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND WILL BE LIGHT. THE DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE WEST TO BE OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY.

SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 04/0634Z AND
04/0815Z SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE AND THE BERING STRAIT REGION. USING IT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 04/0845Z THERE IS
A BROAD AREA OF MVFR OVER THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC...AND THE
ALASKA RANGE...WITH A PATCH OF IFR OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC
PLAINS.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS PICKING UP ON THE NORTHEAST
COAST AND OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TIGHTENS UP. STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW WILL BE EAST OF NUIQSUT. WINDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
TEMPERATURES DROPPING ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A
SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 203
AND 204 DUE MAINLY TO THE VISIBILITY ISSUES. WIND CHILL COULD
APPROACH 50 BELOW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AROUND BARTER ISLAND
ON SATURDAY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
CLEARING TODAY AS THE RIDGE OVER SIBERIA PUSHES A BIT EAST AND
SOUTH OVER THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A BIT MORE...UP TO 10
DEGREES COOLER...OUT HERE AS THE COLD AIR IS DRAGGED SOUTH IN THE
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IN SIBERIA AND THE LOW MOVING OVER BRISTOL
BAY. WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE BERING STRAIT WILL PICK UP
TO GALE FORCE WITH WINDS NEAR 50 MPH ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST.
DO NOT EXPECT TOO MANY ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW BUT WILL ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BERING STRAIT COAST TO COVER THE
STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND THICKENING
OVER THE INTERIOR AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NIKOLAI
AREA. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT NOT MUCH
ACCUMULATION IF ANY FOR MOST AREAS. THE LOW MOVES FAIRLY RAPIDLY
OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN
RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES OVER MOST OF THE
INTERIOR BY LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS PICKING UP AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL BLOWING
SNOW OVER SOME OF THE SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR. MODELS INDICATE THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE YUKON FLATS.
NORTH WINDS ALSO PICK UP A BIT IN THE PASSES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35
MPH WILL OCCUR OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

&&

SDB MAR 16