Flooding in Alaska, July 20 to 29, 2016

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
304 PM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Models in decent agreement through 60 hours. Strong cold upper
level low has moved just to the west of Banks Island as it
continues to move toward a position along the Canadian Arctic
Coast just south of Banks Island and then continue eastward along
the Canadian Arctic Coast. The trailing arctic front will continue
to lie along the north slopes of the Brooks Range through
Wednesday. The very cold air aloft will be shunted into Northern
Canada on Wednesday.

This cold air is likely providing an early season snowfall to the
high country in the far Eastern portion of the Brooks range.
Therefore a winter storm warning has been issued for this area.

The cold front has sagged south to the Alaska Range. Behind the
front is moderately stable air as we do not anticipate any
thunderstorms today or on Wednesday. There will be convective
showers that will pop up as the train of moisture continues to
stream in from the west through at least Thursday.

The next system is on the horizon as it has moved just north of
the Aleutian Chain and will move to the Western Bering Sea and its
occluded front will sting out into Alaska. Ahead of the occluded
front the models pick up on a batch of moisture preceding the
frontal band of moisture. This is likely attributed to shortwave
moving southeast out of Eastern Siberia. This is likely to supply
another round of moderate rainfall to the Central Interior. This
will keep the rivers running high.

Winds on the Arctic Coast continue to be pinched in the far
eastern portion near Barter Island. This should continue to until
probably around Wednesday morning.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The airmass over the central and eastern
interior has modified enough to make the precipitation
showery, but it remains more stratiform over the western
interior as well as the west coast. Showers are low-topped in any
event. No real thunderstorm potential is apparent until friday,
and only in zones 218 and 220. a weather front moving in
from the west will move the more stratiform regime back
into the central interior (as far as zone 222) Wed night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The heavy rainfall that has occurred has sent many of the interior
rivers to near action stage. As of now there has been no reports
of widespread flooding as rainfall amounts varied greatly over the
area. Not expecting significant flooding at this time. We are
expecting additional rainfall Wednesday night and Thursday so this
will add to the already high water in the rivers. The rainfall
amounts seem to differ fairly significantly between models
though.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ206.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240.
&&

CF JUL 16