Intermittently warm and cold conditions combined with periodically heavy precipitation contributed to an unstable snow pack in the Chugach mountains. An avalanche triggered in the end of February killed one person.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
Intermittently warm and cold conditions combined with periodically heavy precipitation contributed to an unstable snow pack in the Chugach mountains. An avalanche triggered in the end of February killed one person.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 5:35 AM AKST, 7 hours 16 minutes earlier.
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
535 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME WITH A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND RIDGING TO THE EAST. THE MAIN
EMBEDDED LOW IN THE TROUGH SITS NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH
MULTIPLE LOWS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN ALSO
RESULTS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING UP MORE WARM AIR TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE NEXT IMPACTFUL LOW IS
HEADED TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
BRINGING A FRONT TOWARDS THE GULF.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND STARTS TO
MERGE WITH THE LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. NONE OF THEM SEEM
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS MERGER BUT THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF IMPACTS TO
SOUTHERN ALASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA...WILL TRAVERSE NORTHEASTWARD YET AGAIN TOWARDS THE
GULF OF ALASKA COAST TODAY. WHILE RECENT LOWS HAVE FAVORED A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA...THIS
NEW LOW WILL FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL KODIAK.
CURRENTLY THE DRY CONVEYOR PORTION OF THIS LOW IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF KODIAK ISLAND AND KENAI
PENINSULA AND NEARBY WATERS AS THE STORM PUSHES NORTHWARD.
IN ADDITION...ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND
MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE MAIN LOW...AND BRING YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN KENAI. WITH
NO COLD AIR IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN RAIN
NEAR THE COAST...BUT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PASSES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR IMPRESSIVE GUSTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
GAPS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE STORM WILL SUPPORT STORM
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...AND THROUGH GAPS IN KODIAK ISLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN A SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A LOW WILL APPROACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND LOW MOVING INTO THE AKPEN EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
GENERALLY KEEP THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA MOSTLY DOWNSLOPED.
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN WITH SOME PERIODS OF
SNOW MIXED IN...MAINLY DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE LOWS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING...NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION
WITH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 40 MPH DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF MID-DAY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE BERING SEA AS A SERIES OF LOWS ENTER INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND THE REGION
REMAINS IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND OVER BRISTOL BAY TODAY TO GALE FORCE AS THE
LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA BEFORE WEAKENING SUNDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE IN A SIMILAR
TRACK LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING A SECOND ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO
THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERING SEA AND THE FAR
WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER
NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE GENERAL PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMPLEX CENTERED OVER
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
THE TIMING AND POSITION OF INDIVIDUAL SURFACE LOWS ROTATING AROUND
THE MEAN CENTER...THEY ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND BRING A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS
NORTH INTO THE GULF AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO
BRISTOL BAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
ALOFT WITH IT TURNING PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS IN MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL ROTATE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF MONDAY MORNING THEN
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL TROUGHS FOLLOWING.
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA MIDWEEK FOR A DRIER BREAK
BEFORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS START LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE GULF AND
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AROUND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 119 130 131 138.
GALE 120 132 136 137 139 150 155 160 178 185.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...JR1 avalanche. Local standard time, as filed.
A person riding a snow mobile in a remote area was caught in an avalanche and perished. The area was only accessible by helicopter or snow mobile.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche, Copper River Basin | 2016-02-27 | 50 | Male | Outside/Open Areas | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, February 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 616172.