Blizzard in Alaska, February 26, 2016

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
248 PM AKST THU FEB 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST...STRONG WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED HEADLINES IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND NEAR DELTA
JUNCTION AREA...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST STARTING LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE
25/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84
HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THEREAFTER INTO THE EXTENDED.

ALOFT...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
RIDE THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. A 496 DAM LOW...ORIGINATING FROM THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA TOMORROW
MORNING THEN PROGRESS EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM NEAR 46N 152W TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE NORTH AND THEN MERGED WITH THE OTHER AFOREMENTIONED LOW
SUNDAY.

SURFACE...A 978 MB LOW 165 MILES SOUTH OF KING COVE WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS ST PAUL ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AN
INVERTED TROUGH STEMMING FROM THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ANOTHER LOW...AT 973 MB WILL EMERGE
FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE TOWARDS KODIAK THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 80N 130W WILL STRENGTHEN AND
EXPAND SOUTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...INCREASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WESTERN ALASKA...THE MAIN CONCERN HERE IS THE ONGOING BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR ZONE 213...SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT
COAST. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE BERING STRAIT
COAST...BUT IT IS UNKNOWN WHETHER OR NOT GAMBELL HAS EXPERIENCED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SO FAR GIVEN NO OBS OR WEB CAM. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS THE BERING
STRAIT COAST...BUT WILL HANG ON OVER SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG OVERHEAD.

ELSEWHERE...SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OVER THE AREA IS SPARKING OFF
SNOW SHOWERS AS IT LIFTS NORTH. PER THE 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS
SATELLITE PRODUCT...A BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG IS DRAPED FROM
POINT HOPE...OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND YUKON DELTA COAST AND
HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING WEST AND CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT.

NORTH SLOPE...POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN
BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND POSSIBLE STRONG WIND HEADLINES OR WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW ZONES 203 AND 202. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BARTER ISLAND AND BECOME SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN STICKING POINT AND QUESTION TO THE POTENTIAL OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS IF THERE IS ANY LOOSE...FRESH SNOW TO BLOW
AROUND TO CAUSE SEVERE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER...BUT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A POTENTIAL STRONG
WIND HEADLINE STARTING LATE TOMORROW EVENING. AM UNCERTAIN ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY FOR BLOWING
SNOW FOR THE VILLAGES OF ZONES 202 AND 203. OTHERWISE...SOME LOW
CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES TONIGHT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WINDS ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED FOR ZONES 223 AND 225 SINCE WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER IN ZONE 226...SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO
GUST ABOVE 50 MPH AND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THUS HAVE
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY TILL 9 PM. A WEAK TANANA VALLEY JET
WILL DEVELOP IN ZONE 223 TOMORROW...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE SUB
ADVISORY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE FROM DELTA JUNCTION
SOUTH.

ELSEWHERE...A LINE OF SHOWERS HAVE FORMED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
FAIRBANKS OVER THE FEW HOURS. THIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
FAIRBANKS AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR...BUT WILL LIKELY BE JUST
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN
ZONE 224 AND THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ204.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

LTH FEB 16