Blizzard in Alaska, February 24 to 25, 2016

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
346 PM AKST TUE FEB 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR ABOUT
THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12Z MODELS
INITIALIZE WELL AGAINST OBSERVATIONS.

SURFACE...A 1010 MB LOW 250 NM NW OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN IN PLACE THOUGH 9 AM WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. THE AXIS OF THE
RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AMBLER TO CIRCLE TO EAGLE TO MAYO.
THE RIDGE AXES WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH OF MACKENZIE BAY WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 962 MB LOW 350 NM SE OF
CHIGNIK WILL MOVE TO 250 NM S OF SAND POINT BY 9 AM WED AT 960 MB AND
TO 225 NM SW OF BETHEL BY 9 AM THURSDAY AT 970 MB.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST A BIT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO BRISTOL BAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE BIGGEST STORY IN THE INTERIOR
WILL BE THE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE ALASKA RANGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ISABEL PASS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL LIKELY BE
SEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST IN ZONE 225 EXPECT GUSTS TO
AROUND 60 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE WILL
LIKELY DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL RAMP UP AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE 18Z NAM IS BRINING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW INTO
THE FAR EASTERN INTERIOR ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS
ARE LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THIS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH WEST COAST THIS EVENING AS A SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TONIGHT. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO PUSH INTO THE YUKON DELTA TOMORROW AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN
ZONES212..214 AND 215 AT TIMES TOMORROW WHERE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
NORTHWARD...THUS PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER ONE
INCH.

ARCTIC COAST...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

FEB 16