A triple point low formed in the Central Aleutians and moved eastward. The cold air advection behind the low enhanced both winds and snow amounts for areas west of Unalaska.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A triple point low formed in the Central Aleutians and moved eastward. The cold air advection behind the low enhanced both winds and snow amounts for areas west of Unalaska.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 18, 4:50 PM AKST, 11 hours 52 minutes earlier.
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 450 PM AKST THU FEB 18 2016 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN IS DEFINITELY MORE DYNAMIC AND INTERESTING THAN IT HAS BEEN IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. FIRST...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT THAT STALLED OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS FALLING APART IN PLACE. SNOW HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS THE AK PENINSULA WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HOLDING ON IN THE TRAILING GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW. NEXT UP IS A FAIRLY BROAD LOW OUT OVER THE WESTERN BERING. WHILE THE LOW ITSELF IS NOW SLOWLY FILLING...IT HAS PUSHED AN ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL BERING. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS ARE JUST EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. BUT AS IT DRIFTS EAST THEY SHOULD START TO SEE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND SNOW PICK UP IN INTENSITY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS. ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS BOUNDARY...A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS LOW WILL HELP TO REINFORCE SOME WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND SOME COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR NIKOLSKI WITH STORM-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS. A BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE EAST. SOME LOW STRATUS LINGERS OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...BUT THIS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LIFT SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT COULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE WEAKENING LOW NEAR KODIAK. EARLIER TODAY IT WAS DIVIDING THE ISLAND IN TWO WITH WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR KODIAK CITY PROVIDING RAIN WHILE THE SOUTH END OF THE ISLAND WAS SNOW UNDER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SOUTHEASTERLIES HAVE WON THIS BATTLE AND NOW ALL LOCATIONS HAVE GONE OVER TO RAIN. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MAINLAND AS AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTS WEST FROM THE GULF TOWARD THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. && .MODEL DISCUSSION...SYNOPTICALLY...ALL MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. BUT DUE TO THE NATURE OF THIS FORECAST WITH MANY FINE DETAILS MAKING DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WERE GENERALLY PREFERRED. THE KEY DIFFERENCES ARE WITH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE DEFORMATION BAND NEAR THE PRIBS AND HOW FAR WEST THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CAN PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE 18Z NAM DID COME IN A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THE COLD AIR FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. BUT EVEN WITH THAT SHIFT...NIKOLSKI WOULD REMAIN IN SOME OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW. FOR THE PRIBS...THE NAM WAS BY FAR THE COLDEST WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW. A MODEL AVERAGE WAS USED IN HANDLING THIS IN ORDER TO NOT REFLECT THE MORE EXTREME SOLUTION. THEN WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH WITH THIS EVENT...BUT THEY ARE STARTING TO TREND IN A SIMILAR DIRECTION. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT AROUND IN THAT GENERAL LOCATION TONIGHT THEN PULL BACK TO THE WEST FRIDAY TO DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN STRETCHED OVER OR NEAR KODIAK ISLAND KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN GENERALLY COOL AND DRY WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH TERRAIN GAPS. THE NEXT LOW COMING IN FROM THE WEST AND BRINGING A GOOD SUPPLY OF COLD AIR ALOFT WITH IT WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND TO THE CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... THE FRONT THAT HAD STALLED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE REMAINING SNOW AROUND BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL THEN BE PUSHED NORTH LATE FRIDAY BRINGING MORE WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION AROUND BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)... THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS IS WHERE THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SETUP. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE IT OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND STRETCHING SOUTH OVER THE NIKOLSKI AREA. WHILE OTHERS HAVE THE BAND FURTHER TO THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MORE EASTERN SOLUTIONS WILL HAPPEN WHICH WILL BRING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW NEAR NIKOLSKI. AREAS EAST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIKE UNALASKA LOOK TO STAY OUT OF THE HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AND THEN A PATTERN OF NORTH TO WEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)... THE MAJOR WEATHER EVENT OF THE MID TO LONG TERM WILL BE ON DAY 3 WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A ROBUST FRONT INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK LOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS EVENT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID THERE IS STILL A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE IMPACTS TO THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. ALONG THE COAST...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT SEA LEVEL...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH WET SNOW EXPECTED INLAND AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. IN INTERIOR REGIONS...THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT WINDS AT 925 THROUGH 700 MB WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH /AT LEAST 45-65KT/ TO PUSH MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO UPPER COOK INLET AND THE MATANUSKA AND LOWER SUSITNA VALLEYS. MODEL QPF VALUES CURRENTLY ARE RANGING FROM AROUND 1-2 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE GREATER ANCHORAGE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE QUESTION IS WHAT WILL BE THE FORM OF THE PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE IS VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL WITH A SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS OF AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW AT THE LOW END UPWARDS TO 25+ INCHES AT THE HIGH END. THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE HOW MUCH COLD AIR REMAINS IN THE COOK INLET REGION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR ALOFT...IF ANY...MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. WITH ALL THIS SAID...THE FORECAST IS VERY CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH LIKELY CHANCES OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE UPPER COOK INLET REGION WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ON SUNDAY. LIKELY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY ALONG COASTAL REGIONS. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THERE IS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT ON SUNDAY. DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...MODELS ARE IN GROSS AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A STOUT RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA FROM THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CASCADES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC/BERING SEA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE TWO MAIN CENTERS...ONE LOCATED ROUGHLY AROUND 45N 165W AND A SECOND CENTER OVER THE SEA OF OHKOSK. AS WITH THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH A SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE SE ALASKA/BC COAST. DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...STRENGTH...AND POSITIONS WITH THESE SYSTEMS THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 FORECAST LEANS HEAVY ON THE WPC FORECAST /WHICH IS MOSTLY THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE/. THIS SOLUTION MOVES A 970-975 MB LOW ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE ALEUTIANS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE MERGING INTO A BROAD LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE KODIAK AND THE GULF COAST IN A WET PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...195 BLIZZARD WARNING...185. MARINE...STORM...174 GALE...131 150 170 172 173 175 176 177 178 179 185 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 178 180 185 && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK LONG TERM...RF
1 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.
WLON at Nikolski reported winds above 35 kts for most of the day on Feb 19th. No visibility reports are available for Nikolski, nor were there any storm reports.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, February 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 616174.