Blizzard in Alaska, February 16 to 17, 2016

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
231 PM AKST TUE FEB 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE 12Z ANALYSIS. THE MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CONTINUED RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG A
WAINWRIGHT TO GALENA LINE. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED
OFF TO THE EAST. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH INTO THE WEST COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO A LOW AT THE SURFACE.

SURFACE...A 984 MB LOW 150 NM N OF AMCHITKA WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE TO 150 NM SW OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY 10 PM TONIGHT AND TO 250
NM NW OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUES NW.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ARCTIC THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH A
NORTHERLY PROGRESSING LOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN UP AND CREATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN
ALASKA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A STRONG FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST COAST. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DECENT SNOWFALL AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND WINDS WILL KICK
UP AT MANY LOCATIONS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING
ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WHERE A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ONGOING. THE
SNOW WILL PUSH INTO THE YUKON DELTA THIS EVENING. HEAVY SNOW
COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BRING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
THIS AREA. A WINTER STORM WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING
FOR THIS AREA. SNOWFALL WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THIS
AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING IN ZONES 212
AND 211 WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED. WINDS
GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH IN FAVORED WINDY LOCATIONS WILL CREATE NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY WHERE FALLING SNOW IS EXPECTED SUCH
AS THE NULATO HILLS AND WEST OF NOME WHERE IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
IS EXPECTED TO FALL. LESS SNOW AND WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
ZONE 210 OVERALL...HOWEVER BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY NEAR BUCKLAND AND DEERING WHERE STRONG EAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VERY STRONG
GRADIENT PUSHING OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ZONE 209 WITH THIS PACKAGE. STRONG EAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND COMBINED WITH
RECENT SNOWFALL CAUSE VISIBILITY TO DROP BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT
TIMES. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
ZONE 207 TONIGHT.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL DOES NOT PROGRESS MUCH FURTHER
WEST THAN GALENA...AND THE SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
PLACE THURSDAY EVENING.

NORTH SLOPE...SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER THE
NORTH SLOPE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE STATIONS ARE REPORTING AREAS
OF FOG AND EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH
SLOPE...BUT PARTICULARLY FROM BARROW WEST. THIS IS DUE TO THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA PUSHES TO
THE NORTH. EXPECT THE INCREASED WINDS TO RESULT IN SOME BLOWING
SNOW ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST FROM BARROW EAST TOMORROW. WILL GO
WITH A STRONG WIND HEADLINE AFTER CONSULTING WITH OBSERVER ON THE
GROUND IN BARROW ABOUT THE CONDITION OF THE CURRENT SNOW PACK.
OTHERWISE EXPECT CONTINUED LOW STRATUS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN THE
SHORT TERM.

INTERIOR...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF STRATUS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FAIRBANKS RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS...PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS THIS EVENING. INCREASED
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR...PARTICULARLY IN PLACES
THAT ARE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY WINDS...SUCH AS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND CHANNELED AREAS...AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION TIGHTENS UP. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT
TERM...SAVE FOR A FEW FLURRIES HERE AND THERE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ209.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ215.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

FEB 16