Hail and Damaging Winds in Virginia, May 16, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
317 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. COOL AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL HELP PUMP A WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE BUT
SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING THE WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS
AFTER 20Z THEN CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 03Z. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT THREAT FOR SEVERE IS LOW GIVEN INADEQUATE
SHEAR.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 70S IN THE METRO
CENTERS. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
MORE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST
OF THE STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA BUT A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT BECOMES STALLED ACROSS THE
REGION. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL RIDE UP AND OVER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS ENERGY WILL BE THE NEEDED
LIFT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT LINGERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME IN MAY. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ON A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZE. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MIDDLE 50S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE 40S OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO
THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

ONCE THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND USHER BACK IN MORE HUMID AIR
FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTH...AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY PIVOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERS ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND
FRIDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SATURDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
HIGHS SATURDAY MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL..BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT. VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME PATCHY
FOG ESPECIALLY AT KCHO.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
EXCEPTION TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EACH PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT IN ANY
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW SCA ALL OF TODAY. A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT WHICH
COULD PROMPT A FEW SMW'S TO BE ISSUED. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO MARINE HAZARDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE ANOMALIES TO INCREASE A BIT...BUT THE WIND MAY BE
JUST WEST OF SOUTH...LIKELY KEEPING WATER LEVELS BELOW MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/KRW
MARINE...KLW/KRW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
200 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-171600-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
200 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053-
055-501>506-171600-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE-CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-
BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-
WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
200 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.