Damaging Winds in Virginia, July 13 to 14, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
302 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE ON THE MRX WFO DOORSTEP BY
AROUND 5-6 PM EDT. MODERATE TO STRONG CAPE VALUES AND 35-40 KTS OF
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION QUITE STRONG AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. WOULD EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD BE FIRING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MIDWESTERN STATES AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS YET TO
SWING ACROSS APPALACHIANS. WOULD EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN AROUND 08-15Z.
THESE MAY BE A BIT WEAKER WITH LESS INSTABILITY IN THE DIURNAL MIN
PERIOD. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WELL
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FEEDS OFF
RESIDENT STRONG INSTABILITY AND EVEN STRONGER SHEAR. STAYED CLOSE
TO THE MOS BLEND CONCERNING MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK TO BE IN PROGRESS TUESDAY
EVENING...DECREASING OVERNIGHT WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST. VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE EARLIER TUESDAY AND GOOD SHEAR WILL
CAUSE POTENTIALLY LARGE AREA OF DAMAGING WINDS...SOME LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WEDNESDAY AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRIER AS NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
OVERNIGHT STORMS AND WEAK BOUNDARY OR FRONT WILL HELP ATMOSPHERE TO
BE LESS UNSTABLE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH FROM NW
TO SE BUT RAIN CHANCES MUCH LOWER. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL VERY
WARM WITH WARM START. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A BREAK IN
CONVECTION AS SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER RIDGE MOVES BACK SLIGHTLY EAST
AND NW STORM TRACK SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST. DIURNAL STORMS AGAIN
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY TO SOUTH SHIFTS BACK NORTH AS WEAK WARM
FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. ON THE WEEKEND THE
RIDGE SHIFTS BACK WEST WHICH PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN THE PATH
OF STORM COMPLEXES MOVING OR DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN TN VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  92  74  92 /  50  60  60  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  89  72  89 /  70  60  60  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       74  89  73  89 /  70  60  60  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  87  69  84 /  70  60  60  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

20/TD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
313 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-141930-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
313 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015 /213 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS OF
60 TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A DECAYING MCS MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT THE MAIN FOCUS COMES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM KENTUCKY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT.
THEN...STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO AN MCS WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS THAT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN VALLEY DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...VERY
LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW TORNADOES ALSO EXISTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON TO AN EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING TIME-FRAME...AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.