Hail in Texas, May 9, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NEAR THE TAF SITES AND
WILL IMPACT KPVW WITHIN THE HOUR AND KCDS IN A FEW HOURS. KLBB
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHEN/IF STORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP IN BEHIND THE STORMS BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WIND
THROUGH THE DAY BUT VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THREE TAF SITES FROM
WEST TO EAST. EXPECT VFR AT KLBB AND KPVW BY 15Z AND AT KCDS BY
18-21Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/

SHORT TERM...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NWRN AZ WILL MIGRATE EAST TODAY BEFORE
PIVOTING NE TOWARD THE PALMER DIVIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR PRESENTATION OF THIS CYCLONE AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE
LEADING EDGE OF ITS HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS ERN NM WERE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE AS NOTED BY THE SUDDEN BLOSSOMING OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM FROM 1 TO 2 AM. THIS ASCENT AND MID-LEVEL
COOLING WILL BE OUR BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR FOR PRECIP CHANCES EARLY
THIS MORNING AS 30 METER HEIGHT FALLS FROM 700-500MB PUSH E-NE.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST... RICH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE BIG COUNTRY
SHOULD CARRY NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS INTO OUR SRN ROLLING PLAINS
COUNTIES NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS CONVEYOR OF MOIST ASCENT ATOP A
SHALLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /LEFTOVER FROM YESTERDAY/S STORM COMPLEX/
HAS ALREADY BEEN SPURRING ISO-SCT TSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...
BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS FEED WILL BOLSTER PRECIP COVERAGE AFTER
12Z ONCE THE HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE ON OUR ERN COUNTIES.

PRIOR TO 12Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
OUT OF ERN NM AND ENCOUNTER AN ABUNDANCE OF ELEVATED CAPE ANYWHERE
TO THE TUNE OF 1500-3000 J/KG LIKELY LEADING TO MORE ROUNDS OF
SEVERE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND LARGE
LOOPING HODOGRAPHS FROM JUST 0-1KM COULD READILY YIELD A FEW QLCS
STRUCTURES AND EVEN A RARE PRE-DAWN TORNADO GIVEN GROUND-SCRAPING
LCL HEIGHTS AND LFC HEIGHTS DEPRESSED TO AROUND 2000 FEET.
RELATIVELY BRISK STORM MOTIONS AROUND 30 MPH SHOULD KEEP THE
FLOODING THREAT LOW EVEN AS THIS CONVECTION LIKELY AFFECTS OUR
NERN COUNTIES WHERE SOILS ARE FULLY SATURATED FOLLOWING 3-6 INCHES
OF RAIN IN AS MANY DAYS.

BY LATE MORNING...CONVECTION SHOULD BE SPIRALING N-NE INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND WRN OK AHEAD OF STRONGER AND DRIER SW FLOW. THE
DRYLINE APPEARS LIKELY TO MAKE GOOD HEADWAY EAST ACROSS THE
CAPROCK BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWING MARKEDLY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF 65-70 DEWPOINTS ADVECTING
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MOST MODELS REMAIN TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
MIXING THIS DRYLINE OUT OF OUR AREA COMPLETELY...SO WILL KEEP WITH
OUR STRATEGY OF FAVORING OF A MORE WESTERLY DRYLINE POSITION BY
MIDDAY WHICH COULD GARNER ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SEVERE STORMS. THE
ONLY NEGATIVE FOR STORMS FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION PERSPECTIVE IS
THAT OUR REGION WILL LIE TO THE RIGHT/SOUTH OF THE FAVORED MID AND
UPPER JET MAXIMA WHICH TEND TO BREED MORE SUBSIDENCE VERSUS THE
POLEWARD SIDE. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK CIN COULD READILY BE OFFSET BY
FOCUSED DRYLINE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF GUSTY SW WINDS UPSTREAM.
SHOULD DRYLINE STORMS FORM...THEY WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE OUT OF OUR
AREA AS MEAN STORM SPEEDS RISE TO 30-40 MPH.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS DRY
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
SUNRISE. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT A LACK
OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PRECLUDES PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING MONDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY AND A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE
RETURN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND PUSHES EAST
THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ROTATES OUT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THURSDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WHILE THE GFS STILL HAS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AS THE SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER COLORADO. THIS
PLACES THE FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY INTO DOUBT
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS UNFOLD. GIVEN THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP GULF MOISTURE IN THE REGION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...CANNOT
RULE OUT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AFTER THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY...EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIRMASSES FROM ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DEVELOPS...BUT WE SHOULD SEE WARMER THAN NORMAL MINS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  44  72  42 /  20   0  10  10
TULIA         76  46  74  44 /  40   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     77  48  73  45 /  40   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     77  49  75  47 /  20   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       79  50  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   77  50  75  48 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    79  51  77  49 /  20   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     83  55  80  50 /  60   0  10  10
SPUR          83  54  79  52 /  50   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     87  58  82  56 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

14/14/93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
759 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

TXZ021>044-101300-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
759 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM FOR ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27 AND HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE...HOWEVER ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY.