A deep fetch of Gulf moisture overspread the South Plains this afternoon in advance of a slow-moving trough. Numerous thunderstorms erupted by late afternoon across the western South Plains and spread slowly northeast through the overnight hours under weak upper level winds.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A deep fetch of Gulf moisture overspread the South Plains this afternoon in advance of a slow-moving trough. Numerous thunderstorms erupted by late afternoon across the western South Plains and spread slowly northeast through the overnight hours under weak upper level winds. The slow nature of these storms resulted in torrential rainfall rates and flooding in many areas, but the most impressive rainfall and flooding bulls-eyed in central and southern Lynn County where between 6 and 12 inches of rain was measured before midnight. Nearly all roads in Lynn County were closed by DPS officials due to standing water in excess of one foot over long stretches. The city of Tahoka became marooned by floodwaters forcing emergency officials to give stranded motorists refuge in area shelters. When these shelters either reached capacity or were threatened by floodwaters, officials transported persons to adjacent counties for safety. To add insult to injury, additional rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rain developed early in the morning on the 5th and prolonged flooding issues over much of the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains. Schools in Tahoka were closed on the 5th due to many roads remaining impassable. Dozens of vehicles from Lubbock to Tahoka required rescuing after motorists drove into deep floodwaters and became stranded. Most of these flooded cars were deemed complete losses after the engines became hydrolocked. One small child suffered a head injury after the car they were in hydroplaned abruptly near Southland (Garza County). Combined damage to vehicles, homes and thousands of acres of wheat crops (particularly in Lynn County) could exceed $300M.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 4, 2:49 PM CST, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 349 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SHORT TERM... THE BULK OF EVIDENCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS A VALID THREAT FOR FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK TONIGHT. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES WHILE LEAD DISTURBANCES SWING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN LATER IN THE NIGHT. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LATER TONIGHT HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WITH BOTH WRF/NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS...OR MORE THAN DOUBLE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EARLY EVENING CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO MATURE INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN OR WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...THAT SHOULD PERSIST AND EDGE EAST OR SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW DURING THE NIGHT....PERHAPS ALONG AN INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BOUNDARY. MORE SOLUTIONS ARE PRODUCING LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE NIGHT AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WORK SLOWLY EASTWARD...WITH HIGHEST TOTALS MOSTLY IN THE 3" TO 5" RANGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SOLUTIONS EVEN HIGHER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. PINPOINTING EXACTLY WHERE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL FALL REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELUSIVE THOUGH WE ARE STARTING TO SEE BETTER SIGNALS OF THE MAXIMUM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. AS SUCH WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ONE ADDITIONAL ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST. THE POSSIBLE HIGH TOTAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO JUSTIFY POTENTIAL FOR A FLASHY NATURE TO THE FLOODING THREAT ALTHOUGH AREAL FLOOD THREAT OVERALL PROBABLY WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. URBAN AREAS IN PARTICULAR WILL BE AT RISK FOR VERY RAPID RUNOFF. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS THIS EVENING...AND SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK ANYWAY EXCEPT NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THIS REGION THOUGH A BRIEF ROGUE SEVERE CELL COULD OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE AS CONVECTIVE ENERGY LEVELS INCREASE CLOSE TO 1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM. SHOULD RAIN EVENT UNFOLD OVERNIGHT AS IN THE ABOVE SCENARIO...A COOL MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD SHOVE SOUTH AND WESTWARD EARLY TUESDAY...THOUGH STILL MAY SEE ON-GOING RAIN AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THE STRONGER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH LATE TUESDAY WILL TEND TO TIGHTEN SURFACE TROUGH AND SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT INDICATING A DRY-LINE PUSH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER IF NOT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ZONE MAY BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS BY LATE TUESDAY ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL FORECAST DETAILS WILL HAVE TO AWAIT TONIGHTS OUTCOME. RMCQUEEN .LONG TERM... ONGOING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TUESDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY UNTIL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NE ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA. WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY...UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE DRYLINE IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY TO COINCIDE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND DEEPER MOISTURE OFF THE CAPROCK TO EXPECT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TO INITIATE IN OUR AREA AND EXIT EASTWARD AS WEDNESDAY EVENING PROGRESSES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRYLINE CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY... FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PACIFIC LOW SLOWLY PLODS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS INTO WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...NOT EXITING EAST UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. MAINTAINED CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CAPROCK AS THE MEAN DRYLINE POSITION SEEMS TO FAVOR THE DIVIDE BETWEEN THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL..TO POSSIBLY A TICK BELOW...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WILL ALL HELP TO KEEP MAX TEMPS AT BAY. GUIDANCE HINTS TOWARD ANOTHER SIMILAR SYSTEM SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF DRYLINE CONVECTION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 55 69 51 78 / 90 70 30 0 TULIA 57 67 55 80 / 90 80 60 10 PLAINVIEW 58 68 56 80 / 90 80 50 10 LEVELLAND 57 72 57 81 / 90 70 20 0 LUBBOCK 58 70 59 82 / 90 70 30 10 DENVER CITY 57 77 57 81 / 90 50 20 10 BROWNFIELD 58 74 58 82 / 90 60 20 10 CHILDRESS 61 70 62 83 / 80 80 60 30 SPUR 58 69 60 83 / 90 70 50 40 ASPERMONT 61 73 63 82 / 60 70 50 40 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ021>024-027>030- 033>036-039>042. && 05/55
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1225 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 TXZ021>044-051730- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 1225 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO PING PONG BALL SIZE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE LINE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE BETTER ORGANIZED AND COULD BRING THE RISK OF WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH ALONG WITH GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND INUNDATION FLOODING WILL WILL BECOME INCREASING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 35 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:23 UTC.
5 flood, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 567926, 567925, 567931, 567933, 567929, 567928.