Drought in Texas, May 1 to 25, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
604 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 11 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SAME AS YESTERDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SUNNY SKIES BUT WITH A BIT STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND.
THIS HAS HELPED TO BOOST TEMPERATURES AS FORECAST WITH MOST READINGS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO
PULL HIGH CLOUDS FROM SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NRN NEW MEXICO AND SRN COLORADO LATER
TONIGHT BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONABLE LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY WARMER START TO FRIDAY.
WITH A MID-ATMOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL START THE GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH A VERY SLOW INCREASE
IN DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO PROBABLY BE ON
THE INCREASE AS SOME MOISTURE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST RATHER THAN DUE NORTH.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
UA RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH EARLY
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
850 MB TEMPS...THUS LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH /80S SAT-MON/.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UA RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY BY LATE WEEKEND COURTESY
OF PROGRESSIVE FLOW/UA DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING ACROSS SRN
CANADA/NRN U.S. TIER. FLOW ALOFT WILL THEREFORE BECOME MORE ZONAL.
MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBITING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE SAID
FLOW ALOFT SAT AND SUN MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MORE
SO NORTH OF THE CWA ON SAT...BUT SUN MAY BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS THE
DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT. S-SE SFC WINDS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL DRAW IN
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUN THOUGH NOT SUBSTANTIAL /PWATS
INCREASING TO 0.50-0.80 INCHES/...AND PROGGED SOUNDING PROFILES
INDICATING RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIP POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...IT IS SPRINGTIME IN WEST TX AND
THE FACT THAT A DRYLINE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUGGESTS AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IS VALID SUN LATE AFTN-EVENING.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A PACIFIC UA LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF SRN CALI/BAJA OF CALI. IT IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK EWRD ACROSS SRN CALI/NRN BAJA MON...TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW
ON TUE...AND FINALLY EJECT NNE TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MID- WEEK. CONCURRENTLY...THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT TO ERN NM AND
PERSISTENT SRLY SFC WINDS WILL FILTER IN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
/PWATS INCREASING TO 1.20-1.30 INCHES BY TUE/. THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM ALREADY INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL MON-TUE...BUT THE FACT THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED
TO BECOME MORE AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED RAISES EYEBROWS FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL. MUCAPE OF 600-1200 J/KG COUPLED WITH VEERING
WIND PROFILES AND PROGGED 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS...IMPLY
STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. KEEP IN MIND WE ARE
REFERRING TO DAYS 5 AND 6 AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...BUT IT IS STILL WORTH MENTIONING.

TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S BY TUE DUE TO FALLING 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELDS AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL. THIS SLIGHT
COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AS THE SYSTEM/S PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE
MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST ON WED AND BRING RAINFALL CHANCES TO A
GRADUAL END. AS SUCH...TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S AND 80S
WED-THU. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS HINT AT LIGHT QPF SIGNALS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WED-THU WHICH COINCIDES
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE. THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY AND WILL GO AHEAD AND
MAINTAIN THIS MENTION ATTM.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

TXZ021>044-011615-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1135 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

JORDAN