Drought in Texas, January 1 to 31, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CST WED DEC 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VERY LIGHT FZDZ AND SN WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO IP EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP CIGS LOW AND FURTHER LOWER VISBYS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS
WAY BACK INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE MORNING ENDING PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAYTIME. BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION ENDS...PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF IP AND SN WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER
TO ALL SN. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
LESSER RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FOR VISBYS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST WED DEC 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT IN WESTERN
ARIZONA WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN ARIZONA BY LATE THURSDAY...WHILE A
SIGNIFICANT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
BRUSH OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ON ITS WAY NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY HAS
EXPANDED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...BUT HAS BEEN UNPRODUCTIVE
WITH PRECIPITATION FEEDER POTENTIAL INTO THE LOW LEVEL COLD AND MOIST
AIRMASS OWING LARGELY TO A WARM AND DRY NOSE PUSHING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SHORT RANGE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THINNING OF THE
SHALLOW COLD DOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHILE THE
WARM NOSE OF 2 TO 4 DEGREES CENTIGRADE AIR LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERHEAD
AT AROUND 750 MB OR ABOUT 4000 TO 8000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. IN
FACT TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A LITTLE WARMER AIR IN THIS NOSE ALL
DAY.

UPWARDS LIFT WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE EVENING AND SHOULD LEAD TO
GRADUAL TOP-DOWN MOISTENING BUT WILL REQUIRE MOST OF THE EVENING TO
SATURATE TO A POINT THAT WILL ALLOW PRODUCTIVE PRECIPITATION
SEEDING. LIFT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THE AIRMASS BY THEN SHOULD SUPPORT MUCH MORE EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. THE WARM NOSE HOWEVER NOW LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO HOLD
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NOT ENOUGH WET BULB COOLING TO DRAG THE
AMBIENT CURVE CLEARLY INTO THE SUB-FREEZING OR SNOW FAVORED ZONE.

THE BATTLE LINES ARE CLEARLY DRAWN NOW BETWEEN PHASE ISSUES AND LOW
END SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS VERSUS WARNING LEVEL ICE OR SNOW TOTALS. THE
RAP SOLUTION HAS TRENDED MORE WET WITH LATEST RUNS TALLYING GREATER
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN...AND SNOW WHILE THE MOST RECENT WRF/NAM SOLUTION IS DIVERGENT
WITH LESSER QPF THAN PREVIOUS RUN. WE OPTED EARLIER TODAY TO EXPAND
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...AND AT THIS MOMENT CANNOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
ARGUMENT FOR AN ADJUSTMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH DIVERGENT LAST MINUTE
QPF FORECASTS. THE ULTIMATE DOMINANT PHASE WILL PROVE A BIG FACTOR
ON THE IMPACT POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHILE THERE REMAINS A
RISK FOR A BURST OF AT LEAST LOW-END HEAVY SNOW OR SLEET TOTALS WITH
A GOLDIE LOCKS OUTCOME. EVENING RADAR AND SHORT RANGE SOLUTION
TRENDS VERY WELL COULD STEER INTO AN ADJUSTMENT...STAY TUNED AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE PROSPECTS FOR MORE WINTER WEATHER CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. IN
FACT...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY PEAK
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH THOSE DETAILS WILL HAVE
TO BE WORKED OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE MAIN PLAYER BRINGING THIS MESSY WEATHER...IN ADDITION TO THE
COLD AIR THAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE...IS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING JUST SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS. NWP IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LIKELY BIFURCATING LATE TOMORROW. A
CHUNK OF ENERGY WILL THEN LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW REMAINS ROTATING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS LINGERING LOW SHOULD FINALLY BE KICKED EAST AND THEN
NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACK
TAKING THE CENTER OF THE LOW FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE
FRIDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON.

IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD REALLY RAMP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND X-SECTIONS REMAIN QUITE
INTERESTING THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SHOWING LAYERS OF NEGATIVE EPV
/AND MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE WEAK ELEVATED CAPE/ WHICH COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVIER BANDED PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...A
VARIETY OF TEMPERATURE PROFILES /BETWEEN MODELS/ ARE
DISPLAYED...BRINGING INTO QUESTION THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AT ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION AND TIME. THE GFS REMAINS THE WARMEST AND
SUGGESTS AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE MOSTLY COLD
RAIN...THOUGH WE WOULD BE SURPRISED IF THE COLD LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL
BE COMPLETELY DISLODGED...MEANING FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET MAY
BE A MORE LIKELY PRECIP MODE. THIS MIXED PHASE DILEMMA COULD EVEN
EXIST UP ON THE CAPROCK...THOUGH THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL
LIKELY STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY/ALL SNOW. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF
THINGS...THE 12Z NAM IS MUCH COLDER /ABOUT 5C LOWER THAN THE GFS/
BELOW 700 MB. IF THIS WOULD COME TO FRUITION EVEN OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES COULD SEE MOSTLY FROZEN PRECIP...LIKELY SLEET OR
SNOW...LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. GIVEN THESE
DIFFERENCES...THERE REMAINS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT PRECIP
PHASE AND TIMING AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT REGARDLESS IT WILL LIKELY
BE A MESSY STRETCH OF WEATHER. GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION
INITIALLY WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...WE WOULD EXPECT A DECENT
ELEVATED WARM-NOSE AND THE PROSPECTS FOR SLEET AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AT LEAST FROM LUBBOCK SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS COLUMN WILL THEN COOL AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SWITCH ANY WINTRY MIX TO SNOW. THIS
IS HOW WE HAVE PLAYED THINGS IN THE GRIDS ATTM. WE COULD SEE SOME
HEAVIER BURSTS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...MEANING A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE WOULD BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
AND ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OR WINTER STORM WATCHES
MAY BE NEEDED.

AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT
APPEARS RATHER QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND ON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER SOME FORM OF DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO WARM QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPE BREEZES...THOUGH THE MELTING OF ANY
FROZEN PRECIP ON THE GROUND MAY THWART THIS TREND SOMEWHAT. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING READINGS WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        12  29  17  33  19 /  50  30  10  20  50
TULIA         14  30  18  34  22 /  60  50  10  20  50
PLAINVIEW     15  30  19  35  24 /  60  50  10  20  50
LEVELLAND     16  29  22  35  23 /  60  50  10  20  50
LUBBOCK       16  30  22  34  25 /  60  50  10  20  50
DENVER CITY   17  31  25  34  24 /  60  50  10  30  50
BROWNFIELD    17  30  24  33  25 /  60  50  10  30  50
CHILDRESS     18  28  22  36  27 /  60  50  10  30  50
SPUR          18  31  24  32  26 /  60  50  20  40  50
ASPERMONT     18  30  26  33  27 /  60  50  40  50  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1202 PM CST WED DEC 31 2014

TXZ021>044-011815-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1202 PM CST WED DEC 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WINTER WEATHER

PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
FREEZING...EVEN LIGHT AMOUNTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ALREADY SLICK
ROADS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY MAY PEAK LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES PAST. THOSE WITH TRAVEL
INTERESTS THIS WEEK SHOULD PLAN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAZARDOUS
ROAD CONDITIONS AND BE FLEXIBLE WITH THEIR TRAVEL PLANS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS OF TREACHEROUS ROADS AND SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
REQUESTED.