Heavy Snow in Texas, February 12, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1107 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds are still around 15-20kts at most places, but have decreased
from their peak a few hrs earlier. MVFR CIGS/near MVFR are still
holding in are expected to until around 12Z and then slowly lift
before breaking up after 20Z. Opted to keep some light precip in
CNM/INK/PEQ based on radar, most precip will be INVOF Davis Mtns Thur
AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2015/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Based on the latest incoming data and current trends, have
decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the Davis and
Apache Mountains above 6000 feet for late tonight through Thursday
morning. Snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are
possible in the Advisory area. A mixture of rain, sleet and snow
is expected for the remainder of the Davis Mountains and portions
of the Marfa Plateau late tonight with less than an inch of snow
and sleet expected.

Updated products are being sent.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Post-frontal sustained winds of 20-25kts with G30-35kts will
persist at TAF sites thru 03Z as 4mb/3hr isallobaric high tracks
across the area. MVFR CIGS have set in across the area too with
light -SHRA BR possible especially at the CNM/INK/PEQ/FST into the
morning. CIGS will be slow to lift but will lift to above MVFR
BKN050 or so by mid Thur AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, a cold front is pushing through the area with gusty north
to northeast winds.  High winds are expected in the Guadalupe
Mountains so a High Wind Warning is in effect there through
tonight.  Strong winds are expected in the Davis and Apache
Mountains as well as Van Horn and the Highway 54 Corridor so a Wind
Advisory is in effect there from this evening through tonight.  An
upper level trough is moving southward over New Mexico.  Increased
lift associated with this trough and the front will allow for rain
to develop beginning across southeast New Mexico and spreading south
and east into the evening hours. As the cold air pushes south, there
will likely be a rain/snow mix in the higher elevations of the
Davis/Apache Mountains beginning at 12z Thursday.  The rain may
change completely over to snow just before 15z in the higher
elevations as temperatures cool to just below freezing.  Soundings
indicate temperatures will warm to above freezing around 18z so
expect rain after that time.  Expect accumulations to be around an
inch in some locations with higher amounts possible.  Debated on
issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for this area but decided to hold
off for now due to temperatures not being below freezing for very
long.  The rain is expected to move out of the area by Thursday
evening.   High temperatures for Thursday will be below normal as
the surface high will be over the area. Models show this trough/low
being cut off from the upper flow and meandering toward the
southwest on Thursday.

An upper trough will be over the east coast and Great Lakes area on
Friday and upper ridging over the west conus with the cut off low
moving near the coast of Mexico.  Temperatures are expected to warm
up on Friday despite a wind shift to the northeast during the
afternoon hours.  Even further warming is expected on Saturday as a
surface trough develops across the area.  Moisture from the upper
low moves across the area on Sunday providing an increase in cloud
cover and an increased chance of rain.  Temperatures will cool to
near normal on Sunday.  The cut off low will move back toward the
east as an upper trough swings southeastward from the Pacific
Northwest.  This will cause the low to combine with the upper trough
and allow for rain chances into early next week.  Temperatures will
warm back up on Monday as elevated west winds with a nearby surface
trough contribute to downslope warming despite the precipitation and
cloud cover.  Lapse rates will be sufficient for thunderstorms to
develop Monday afternoon.  The upper trough will begin to move over
the region on Tuesday with a cold front moving into the area
sometime Tuesday as well.  Went cooler than model guidance since 850
mb temperatures were on the cool side.  Precipitation chances will
continue across the area on Tuesday due to the front and trough.
Temperatures Tuesday night will be well below freezing so
precipitation will likely be in the form of snow.  Models show the
precipitation moving out of the area by Wednesday with below normal
temperatures expected for Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 5 AM MST Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 5 AM MST Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM to Noon CST Thursday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area.

     WIND ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
937 PM CST WED FEB 11 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-130345-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
937 PM CST WED FEB 11 2015 /837 PM MST WED FEB 11 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH SUSTAINED WILL AFFECT GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...THE PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS
IN AFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL AFFECT THE VAN HORN/HIGHWAY
54 CORRIDOR AND MARFA PLATEAU TONIGHT.  A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT.

EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...ABOVE 6000 FT...WITH A MIX POSSIBLE TOWARD
SUNRISE IN THE ELEVATIONS DOWN TO 5000 FT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY MORNING IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES ON SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FT AND A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THE CHINATI MOUNTAINS...THE MARFA PLATEAU...
AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS MAY EXPERIENCE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...OR RAIN BETWEEN
5000 AND 6000 FEET ELEVATION WITH NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW OR SLEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND