A levee breach along the Trinity River south of Highway 34 on November 29th, continued to flood the surrounding area in Kaufman County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A levee breach along the Trinity River south of Highway 34 on November 29th, continued to flood the surrounding area in Kaufman County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 30, 11:42 PM CST, 18 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1142 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 .AVIATION... THE ONLY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. OUR CONFIDENCE OF LOW THAT DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT ANY OF THE NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...DECREASING WIND SPEEDS AND SATURATED GROUND MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH MAINLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. THE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. 79 && .SYNOPSIS... THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AREAS OF SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE 850-925 MB FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO DFW TO PARIS LINE. RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WITHIN ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT....SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD FACILITATE A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AS LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND WITH RECENT RAINFALL THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR WIDESPREAD FOG MAY BE SOME DENSE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY CARRY A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A CISCO TO DFW TO BONHAM LINE. TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES...TO UPPER 30S AND 40S ELSEWHERE. IF TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND FOG DOES DEVELOP...THERE MAY BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG. CURRENTLY...LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES AHEAD OF THE 925-850 MB FRONT THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE THE 925-850 MB FRONT STALLS AS THE ATTENDANT UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THE WEAK LIFT OVER THE TOP OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND THUS SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH REINFORCES THE COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION. MORNING LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...MOST DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY AS CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PROMOTE MIXING OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION AND THE CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUPPORT NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES. THE LEE TROUGHING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. FOR SUNDAY...MOST MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS OUT INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM IN WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL GULF AIR. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE AGGRESSOR AND IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FEATURES AS THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THIS WOULD FAVOR GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE BEST LIFT WOULD BE JUXTAPOSED WITH INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS HOWEVER ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BOTH QUICKLY PUSH THE UPPER FORCING TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST. REGARDLESS...AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. WITH REGARDS TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THIS FORECAST TAKES A CONSENSUS/PERSISTENCE APPROACH AND LEANS MORE ON THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT APPEARS THAT RAIN TOTALS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT...BUT REFINEMENTS TO THIS FORECAST WILL BE MADE AS THE WEEKEND NEARS. 15-BAIN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 39 54 38 56 32 / 5 5 5 5 5 WACO, TX 41 56 40 58 34 / 10 10 10 10 5 PARIS, TX 37 55 36 51 32 / 10 10 10 5 5 DENTON, TX 36 53 35 54 32 / 5 5 5 5 5 MCKINNEY, TX 38 54 36 54 31 / 5 5 5 5 5 DALLAS, TX 40 54 39 56 33 / 10 5 10 5 5 TERRELL, TX 40 54 38 55 32 / 10 10 10 5 5 CORSICANA, TX 42 56 42 57 35 / 20 10 10 10 5 TEMPLE, TX 42 57 41 59 34 / 10 10 10 10 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 34 54 32 56 31 / 5 5 5 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 79/25
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1012 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011200- MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN- HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS- ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL- JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO- FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE- LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON- 1012 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE TRINITY RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES WILL CONTINUE...AND RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE BRAZOS AND SABINE RIVERS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A levee breach along the Trinity River south of Highway 34 on November 29th, continued to flood the surrounding area in Kaufman County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 609281.