Texas, 2015Drought in Texas, August 31, 2015
August 31, 2015 · NWS EWX · 3 events in 3 counties and zones
After two months with less than 50 percent of normal rainfall, Bastrop, Blanco, and Caldwell Counties entered Severe Drought category (Stage D2). All three counties had burn bans in effect at the end of the month.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 3
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
After two months with less than 50 percent of normal rainfall, Bastrop, Blanco, and Caldwell Counties entered Severe Drought category (Stage D2). All three counties had burn bans in effect at the end of the month. The Texas Crop and Weather Report issued by Texas A&M indicated pastures and rangeland were declining due to hot and dry conditions. The seven day stream flow average at the end of the month was much below normal (less than 10 percent) in the Middle Guadalupe River basin. The Edwards Aquifer fell during the month and was at 646.5 feet. This was 17.9 feet higher than at the end of August 2014, but 14 feet below average. The Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer Conservation District was in Stage 1 (10 percent reduction) drought status.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 30, 11:34 PM CST, 26 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 30, 11:34 PM CST, 26 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1234 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
RADAR IS QUIET AT TAF ISSUANCE AND IR SATELLITE SHOWS SOME VFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH A
SURGE OF MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE COAST OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KSAT/KSSF THIS MORNING. TO A LESSER
EXTENT...KAUS MAY BRIEFLY SEE MVFR AS WELL. EXPECTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT AGAIN
LOW CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO ANY TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/
UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS ONLY PATCHY RAINS LEFT OVER FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
RAINS WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION
AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO STABILIZE WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING.
TTU-WRF HAS DONE WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS INDICATING WHERE THE RAIN
WILL FALL AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH OVER TEXAS. IT SHOWS
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DO SO AND FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN ONGOING RAIN FREE FORECAST THERE...ALTHOUGH WILL BOOST
POPS TO THE MID TEENS. RAIN COOLED AIR IN AREAS HAS ALLOWED THE
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS AND EXPECT STEADY TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE REESTABLISHED TRENDS TO THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH POPS DEPENDING ON THE MEANDERINGS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEABREEZE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/
AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION. CURRENT
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND BE GONE AFTER SUNSET.
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY
SHOULD SEE LESS AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT AREAS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF I-35. CURRENT GUIDANCE
IS NOT INDICATING ANY MVFR CIGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TRENDS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INCLUDE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
AT KDRT AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR AFTER 15Z.
OVERNIGHT LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS.
AFTER 16Z-19Z MONDAY WILL SEE WINDS BECOME SELY NEAR 10 KNOTS.
WILL SEE AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 18-20 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTH
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND
PRODUCE 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS. OVERALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WITH SOME PLACES
GETTING UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH. HIRES SOLUTIONS SHOW A BREAK FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER...RAIN RETURNS LATE MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY...EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO...THE INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES. CANT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS WITH PATCHY FOG THERE
AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
NOON MONDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. AS ABOVE-MENTIONED...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EAST OF I-35 WITH MAX-T REACHING CLIMATE NORMAL VALUES ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
BETWEEN EAST TEXAS AND COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE GULF WITH ELEVATED PWAT
VALUES. SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
STAYS OVER SOUTHERN LA THROUGH FRIDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATER IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE GONE WITH 20-30% POPS EAST
OF I-35 EACH AFTERNOON WED-FRI. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AND KEEPS THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 94 74 94 74 94 / 10 - 20 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 94 72 92 71 93 / 10 - 20 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 95 73 94 72 94 / 10 - 20 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 93 73 93 72 93 / 10 - 10 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 97 75 97 75 97 / 10 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 94 73 93 73 93 / 10 - 20 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 95 72 94 72 94 / 10 - 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 93 73 93 72 93 / 10 - 20 - 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 94 73 93 72 93 / 10 10 40 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 94 75 93 75 93 / 10 - 20 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 74 94 74 94 / 10 - 20 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 30, 7:20 PM CST, 4 hours 40 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
820 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-312000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
820 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
Drought, Bastrop
- When
- August 31, 12:00 AM CST to 11:59 PM CST
- Where
- Bastrop forecast zone
- Reported by
- Official NWS Observations
- Coordinates
- 30.104, -97.312 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
After two months with less than 50 percent of normal rainfall, Bastrop, Blanco, and Caldwell Counties entered Severe Drought category (Stage D2). All three counties had burn bans in effect at the end of the month. The Texas Crop and Weather Report issued by Texas A&M indicated pastures and rangeland were declining due to hot and dry conditions. The seven day stream flow average at the end of the month was much below normal (less than 10 percent) in the Middle Guadalupe River basin. The Edwards Aquifer fell during the month and was at 646.5 feet. This was 17.9 feet higher than at the end of August 2014, but 14 feet below average. The Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer Conservation District was in Stage 1 (10 percent reduction) drought status.
Drought, Blanco
- When
- August 31, 12:00 AM CST to 11:59 PM CST
- Where
- Blanco forecast zone
- Reported by
- Official NWS Observations
- Coordinates
- 30.266, -98.400 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
After two months with less than 50 percent of normal rainfall, Bastrop, Blanco, and Caldwell Counties entered Severe Drought category (Stage D2). All three counties had burn bans in effect at the end of the month. The Texas Crop and Weather Report issued by Texas A&M indicated pastures and rangeland were declining due to hot and dry conditions. The seven day stream flow average at the end of the month was much below normal (less than 10 percent) in the Middle Guadalupe River basin. The Edwards Aquifer fell during the month and was at 646.5 feet. This was 17.9 feet higher than at the end of August 2014, but 14 feet below average. The Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer Conservation District was in Stage 1 (10 percent reduction) drought status.
Drought, Caldwell
- When
- August 31, 12:00 AM CST to 11:59 PM CST
- Where
- Caldwell forecast zone
- Reported by
- Official NWS Observations
- Coordinates
- 29.837, -97.620 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
After two months with less than 50 percent of normal rainfall, Bastrop, Blanco, and Caldwell Counties entered Severe Drought category (Stage D2). All three counties had burn bans in effect at the end of the month. The Texas Crop and Weather Report issued by Texas A&M indicated pastures and rangeland were declining due to hot and dry conditions. The seven day stream flow average at the end of the month was much below normal (less than 10 percent) in the Middle Guadalupe River basin. The Edwards Aquifer fell during the month and was at 646.5 feet. This was 17.9 feet higher than at the end of August 2014, but 14 feet below average. The Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer Conservation District was in Stage 1 (10 percent reduction) drought status.
- Drought
- A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Flash Flood and Hail in Arizona, August 31, 2015$935,000 · 65 kt wind · 17 events
- Flash Flooding and Damaging Wind in South Carolina, August 31, 2015$138,000 · 50 kt wind · 12 events
- Flash Flood in Texas, August 31, 2015$200,000 · 1 event
- Damaging Winds in Arizona, August 31, 2015$20,000 · 56 kt wind · 2 events
- Flash Flood and Heavy Rain in Arizona, August 31, 20152 events
- Marine Thunderstorm Wind in South Atlantic Coastal Waters, August 31, 20151 event
- Waterspout in Gulf of Mexico, August 31, 20151 event
- Funnel Cloud in Texas, August 31, 20151 event
- Heavy Rain in Arizona, August 31, 20151 event
- Funnel Cloud in Florida, August 31, 20151 event
- Flash Flood in Arizona, August 31, 20151 event
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 596832, 596833, 596834.