Late this evening, scattered thunderstorms rolled southeast from eastern New Mexico and over parts of the western South Plains. One of these storms became a supercell and later split with the left mover persisting across the northern South Plains accompanied by golf ball size hail at times.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Late this evening, scattered thunderstorms rolled southeast from eastern New Mexico and over parts of the western South Plains. One of these storms became a supercell and later split with the left mover persisting across the northern South Plains accompanied by golf ball size hail at times. Farther south, scattered storms merged into a small complex that produced downbursts in Yoakum and Terry Counties. One of these downbursts toppled many medium-size transmission poles near Tokio.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 21, 5:18 PM CST, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 618 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 .AVIATION... ISOLATED -SHRA STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP WEST OF KLBB AND KPVW EARLY THIS EVENING. COMPUTER MODELS DO HINT AT -SHRA/-TSRA THAT MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE SAID TERMINALS AND PUSH EAST LATER THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO PUSHING EAST AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE ACTIVITY HAVE A HARD TIME MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE. THUS...WILL OPT TO NOT INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION DURING THIS TAF CYCLE...UNLESS TRENDS CHANGE...THEN WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY POSSIBLE STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/ SHORT TERM... A SHORTWAVE DEFINED VERY WELL ON WV IMAGERY IS PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL NM WHILE LEAVING MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PLAY A ROLL IN THIS EVENINGS WEATHER IN ONE OF TWO WAYS: 1)EITHER IT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE STATE LINE OR 2) IT WON/T. RIGHT NOW THE FIRST CHOICE IS LOOKING TO BE MORE PROBABLE. IT CURRENTLY HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED...QUICK MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS PARMER COUNTY BUT HAS YET DO DEVELOP ANYTHING FURTHER. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE SO FAR BEEN POOR IN FORECASTING CONVECTION. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE TTU WRF WHICH HAS CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR 00Z. SURFACE MOISTURE CURRENTLY IS NOT AN ISSUE AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FA ARE IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S. ONE FACTOR IN LIMITING CONVECTION ATM IS A DECENT CAPPING INVERSION DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH HAS BEEN STUBBORN AT ERODING. AS A LLJ DEVELOPS LATER THIS EVENING...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING AND LOWERED HEIGHTS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...THE CAP SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE MAKING WAY FOR STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN NM TO PUSH INTO THE FA. STORM TOP DIVERGENCE SHOULD BE AIDED BY A FAIRLY DECENT JET STREAK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP EASILY ONCE CONVECTION HAS FIRED. BULK 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE WHILE INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. STORMS SHOULD START OFF SCATTERED IN NATURE BUT SOON AFTER MORPH INTO A MCS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNDOWN...THE TIME NOT THE TOWN...AS SURFACE HEATING IS LOST. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH STORMS AS PWATS RANGE FROM ONE INCH NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. WHILE STORMS WILL BE QUICK MOVING LIMITING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GREATLY...LOCAL STREET FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST BY TOMORROW MORNING GIVING A LULL IN PRECIP INTO MIDDAY TOMORROW. A LEE TROF WILL SET UP BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH MAY AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE 00Z TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. ALDRICH LONG TERM... A COLD FRONT WILL BE HEADING TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MORNING GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING...BUT LOSING MOMENTUM AND LIKELY STALLING OUT NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A FAIRLY ROBUST QPF SIGNAL WITH THE FROPA ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF MUCH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN SATURDAY, BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS DEPENDING ON WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. THE WRF/NAM SINKS THE FRONT AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTH SUN EVENING...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONTAL ZONE CLOSER TO THE AREA AND FAVORS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING. IN EITHER CASE...THE DECAYING FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE VICINITY ON MONDAY AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND T-STORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA WILL EXTEND INTO WEST TEXAS AND THUS ANY T-STORMS SHOULD STRUGGLE WITH STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WON/T CHANGE MUCH FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME MORE DIURNAL T-STORM ACTIVITY...THE ECMWF IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND UPSLOPE FLOW THAN THE GFS AND THEREFORE GIVES US HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER AZ/NM MID TO LATE WEEK AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY WARM AND DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...A DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MAY SLIDE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND BE FAVORABLY TIMED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN BETTER PRECIP CHANCES CENTERED ON FRIDAY. AFTER THE COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S MOST AREAS FOR THE REST OF PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 62 95 63 77 / 20 20 20 20 TULIA 64 94 65 77 / 40 10 20 20 PLAINVIEW 66 94 68 79 / 40 10 20 20 LEVELLAND 65 95 69 83 / 20 20 20 30 LUBBOCK 67 96 71 84 / 30 10 20 40 DENVER CITY 66 97 69 87 / 20 20 20 50 BROWNFIELD 66 97 70 86 / 20 10 20 50 CHILDRESS 70 97 72 85 / 60 10 30 30 SPUR 67 98 72 88 / 30 10 20 40 ASPERMONT 72 99 75 95 / 30 10 10 40 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 29
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1222 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 TXZ021>044-221730- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 1222 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR MAY CREATE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AND DOWNBURST WINDS AROUND 70 MPH. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCAL STREET FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. AFTER A BREAK DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 716 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 TXZ021-022-027-028-220045- BAILEY TX-LAMB TX-CASTRO TX-PARMER TX- 716 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CASTRO... NORTHEASTERN BAILEY...NORTHWESTERN LAMB AND SOUTHEASTERN PARMER COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT... AT 716 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MULESHOE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MULESHOE...EARTH...LAZBUDDIE...LARIAT AND PROGRESS. LAT...LON 3431 10298 3452 10263 3428 10229 3401 10281 TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 239DEG 23KT 3419 10283 29
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 93 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:24 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
The Muleshoe Police Department and broadcast media reported hailstones up to golf ball size. Minor damage to some vehicles was noted.
Measured by a Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet station.
Xcel Energy reported eleven 69 kV transmission poles toppled from the intersection of US Highway 380 and Farm-to-Market Road 1780 south for about two miles. Lyntegar Electric CO-OP reported one distribution pole was down just south of this swath.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 589008, 589009, 589011.