Scattered thunderstorms increased in coverage during the late afternoon and early evening along a pre-frontal corridor of high dewpoints and moderate instability from eastern KY into northwest PA. Marginally severe storms produced isolated wind damage along the western Alleghenies.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms increased in coverage during the late afternoon and early evening along a pre-frontal corridor of high dewpoints and moderate instability from eastern KY into northwest PA. Marginally severe storms produced isolated wind damage along the western Alleghenies.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 2:54 PM EST, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 354 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...THEN STALL OUT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE FOR MUCH OR THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN PA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING LAKE ERIE AND CENTRAL OHIO AND TRAVELING SOUTHEAST. THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES. THE COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES BY EVENING AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY MILD OVERNIGHT AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE CLOUDY AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT CLOSE TO THE MASON DIXON LINE ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA TOMORROW. QPF VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH IN OUR COUNTIES. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THE SKY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FOCUS FOR PCPN ON DAY 3/THURS. THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PERTURBATION/SFC WAVE EMERGING FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND PROGRESSING EWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO HAVE A NORTHERN BIAS WITH QPF AXES ASSOCD WITH THESE MESO FEATURES...AND THEREFORE FOLLOWED WPC LEAD WITH CLUE FROM THE HI-RES MODELS IN SHIFTING MAX POPS SWD OF CONSENSUS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS FEATURE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR RE-INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES CENTRAL PA THURSDAY AFTERNOON..IN WHICH CASE IT WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE WX AND HEAVY RAINFALL RISK. LATER FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PROVIDE GREATER VISIBILITY AND INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN ITS PROJECTION THAT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL STEADILY EVOLVE TOWARD AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY WAY OF NRN PAC ENERGY FEEDING INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE THAT RETROGRADES WWD FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS EVENTUALLY EXPANDING NWD OVER THE ROCKIES INTO WRN CANADA...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EAST EXTENDING SWD FROM HUDSON BY VORTEX. A 24-48HR PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...WHICH HAS BEEN QUITE ELUSIVE AS OF LATE...COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE D3 CONVECTIVE LOW. THE PLACEMENT OF PIVOTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MSTR/PW AXIS WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR DETERMINING PCPN RISK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE NW OR SW OF CENTRAL PA. THE OTHER FACTOR WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS TO ENERGY EJECTING FROM UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE CA IN THE SHORT RANGE. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN PRINCIPLE THAT THIS ENERGY SHOULD ROUND THE BUILDING ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS RIDGE AND THEN HELP TO CARVE OUT THE DEVELOPING ERN TROUGH DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT LOCKED ONTO HOW SHEARED THE ENERGY WILL BECOME...WHICH ALONG WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL FACTORS LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND TIMING OF NEXT PCPN OPPORTUNITY. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE EASTERN GR LAKES THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THEY MOVE INTO NWRN PA DURING THE EVENING. FIRST TO SEE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL BE BRADFORD...PROBABLY BETWEEN ABOUT 00 AND 03Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MVFR/IFR TO ALL BUT THE FAR SE BY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY. OUTLOOK... FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SW 1/3 OF AIRSPACE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 533 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 PAZ006-011-012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-080945- POTTER-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE- SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET- BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN- SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR- NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND- ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- 533 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE STALLED OUT NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. PAZ004-005-010-080945- WARREN-MCKEAN-ELK- 533 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. LAMBERT
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
PAZ004-005-072100-
WARREN PA-MCKEAN PA-
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WARREN...AND MCKEAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...
AT 355 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR FRANKLIN TO NEAR KNOX...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE
THESE... MOVING ACROSS WARREN AND WESTERN MCKEAN COUNTIES BETWEEN
400 PM AND 430 PM.
WINDS MAY GUST ABOVE 30 MPH WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS...AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR.
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
GRAND VALLEY AROUND 425 PM EDT.
GARLAND AROUND 435 PM EDT.
SPRING CREEK AND COLUMBUS AROUND 440 PM EDT.
LOTTSVILLE AROUND 445 PM EDT.
CHAPMAN STATE PARK AND YOUNGSVILLE AROUND 455 PM EDT.
WARREN...WARREN SOUTH AND RUSSELL AROUND 500 PM EDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE BEAR LAKE...
CLARENDON...STARBRICK...SUGAR GROVE AND TIDIOUTE.
LAT...LON 4200 7868 4180 7868 4162 7893 4163 7961
4190 7961 4200 7954
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 209DEG 39KT 4144 7981 4125 7965
DEVOIRThe State College radar (KCCX), 109 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:07 UTC.
11 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A thunderstorm producing winds estimated around 60 mph knocked down trees west of Kane.
A thunderstorm producing winds estimated around 60 mph knocked down trees west of Kane.
A thunderstorm producing winds estimated around 60 mph knocked down trees and wires, blocking Pine Run Road near Lafayette.
A thunderstorm producing winds estimated around 60 mph knocked down trees along Eleven Mile Road southeast of Shinglehouse.
A thunderstorm produced a 64 mph wind gust and pea-sized hail at Chickaree Summit.
A thunderstorm producing winds estimated around 60 mph knocked down trees in Adams Twp.
A thunderstorm producing winds estimated around 60 mph knocked down trees near South Fork.
A thunderstorm producing winds estimated around 60 mph knocked down trees and wires in Croyle Twp.
A thunderstorm producing winds estimated around 60 mph knocked down trees in Summerhill Borough.
A thunderstorm producing winds estimated around 60 mph knocked down trees near Houtzdale.
A thunderstorm producing winds estimated around 60 mph near Grampian.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 577540, 577542, 577544, 577545, 577561, 577547, 577549, 577557, 577560, 577550, 577552.