Heavy northwesterly swell brought high surf to the southern Oregon coast.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Heavy northwesterly swell brought high surf to the southern Oregon coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 23, 8:39 AM PST, 2 hours 23 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
839 AM PST WED DEC 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. TODAY, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING CONTINUED
SHOWERS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE CASCADES. BEGINNING THIS EVENING, AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THE PACNW COAST THEN SHIFT INLAND
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
BRING A FRONT INLAND INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING LOW ELEVATION
SNOW DOWN TO 1000 TO 1500 FT ELEVATION. THIS WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR IMPACTS IN WESTERN VALLEYS AS WELL AS OVER THE CASCADES,
SISKIYOUS AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. ALSO
THIS FRONT MAY LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
CALFIORNIA AND MAY BRING GREATER SNOW IMPACTS TO SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
MODELS SHOW SOME VARIABILITY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY OR WHETHER
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS. A SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY
BRING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS
MORNING, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST.
THIS MORNING, HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO 1500 FEET IN SHOWERS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED BELOW 2000
FEET ELEVATION. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY DURING
THE DAY TO 2500 FEET BELOW LOWERING TO MANY WEST SIDE VALLEY
FLOORS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IN
A WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2500
FEET MSL. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A WET COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL SEND SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
AROUND 1500 FEET MSL THIS EVENING. /FB
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST WEDNESDAY 22 DEC 2015...NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN BRISK THROUGHOUT TODAY AND NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. A VERY HIGH AND VERY STEEP NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW LIKELY TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE
END OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL OF 13 FEET AT 19 SECONDS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
NIGHT. /FB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM PST WED DEC 23 2015/
DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE, COLD AND WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SNOW LEVELS
HOVERING BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 FEET. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL
ONLY SEE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING IS STRONGEST, UP TO A FOOT OF NEW SNOW IS
POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, BRINGING EVEN
COLDER AIR AND ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FEET. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SNOW DOWN TO SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEY FLOORS, PARTICULARLY IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY NEAR MEDFORD. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE
VALLEYS, ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 2 INCHES IN MEDFORD, BUT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UP TO A FOOT OF NEW SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE
CASCADES, SISKIYOUS, AND THE KALMIOPSIS WILDERNESS. WHILE THIS
AMOUNT OF SNOW WOULD NOT NORMALLY BE CONSIDERED A MAJOR ISSUE,
GIVEN THE AMOUNTS SO FAR SEEN THIS SEASON, INCREASED HOLIDAY
TRAVEL ALONG MANY AREA HIGHWAYS AND INTERSTATE 5 COULD COMBINE
WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE MAJOR DELAYS OR OTHER
IMPACTS. HAVE THEREFORE UPGRADED THE INHERITED WINTER STORM WATCH
TO WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
DETAILS ON THESE CAN BE FOUND ON THE WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
/PDXWSWMFR/ .
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY,
MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND
LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. HOWEVER, RESIDUAL SNOW ON THE GROUND AND ANY NEW FLURRIES
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE MANY LOCAL RESIDENTS A WHITE
CHRISTMAS, OR AT LEAST THE HINT OF ONE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
WEST COAST SATURDAY, AND WITH THE EXPECTED INVERSIONS IN THE
VALLEY, ALONG WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND IN THE SURROUNDING
MOUNTAINS, AND AMPLE MOISTURE TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE, FOG WILL BE
AN ONGOING CONCERN FOR THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE,
CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW COVERED GROUND EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL
ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, RESULTING IN VERY COLD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME COMING TO AN
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE A FEW SYSTEMS ARRIVING IN OUR AREA, ONE AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE OTHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH
SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT EXPECT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. -BPN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ORZ023-026>030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR ORZ031.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ027-028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR ORZ021-022-024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ025.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
CAZ080-081-083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR CAZ082-084-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR CAZ080-081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
CCThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high surf. Local standard time, as filed.
Offshore buoys showed heavy northwesterly swell which resulted in breakers of 29 feet or greater along the coast during this interval.
Offshore buoys showed heavy northwesterly swell which resulted in breakers of 29 feet or greater along the coast during this interval.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 610003, 610004.