Heavy rains brought flooding to parts of Coos County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Heavy rains brought flooding to parts of Coos County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 17, 9:16 AM PST, 2 hours 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
916 AM PST THU DEC 17 2015
.UPDATE...MODELS THIS MORNING ARE SUGGESTING A MORE ROBUST WIND
AND RAIN EVENT FOR TONIGHT. HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE
WIND FORECASTS THIS MORNING, WHICH BRINGS SEVERAL AREAS INTO
ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA. HAVE UPDATED THE HIGH WIND WATCH
ALONG THE COAST TO A HIGH WIND WARNING, EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE EAST SIDE, INCLUDING UPGRADING SOME AREAS TO WARNING,
AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. MORE DETAIL IS
AVAILABLE ON THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MESSAGE AVAILABLE AT
PDXNPWMFR.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT AS WELL, HOWEVER,
RIVER LEVELS HAVE RECEDED WELL BELOW FORECAST THIS MORNING. MANY
RIVER FORECAST HAVE CHANGED, BUT THE END RESULT REMAINS THE SAME,
WITH SEVERAL FLOOD WATCHES IN PLACE, AND AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGES.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK, SO HAVE MADE NO CHANGES.
FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 17/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...COAST RANGE...AND
IN THE UMPQUA BASIN...INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG...ENDING AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SNOW IS FALLING AT KLMT...WITH 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED BY 18Z. SNOW MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES EAST OF
THE CASCADES...INCLUDING KLMT. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IS IN
EFFECT AT KLMT FOR THIS ACCUMULATING FROZEN AND FREEZING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 18Z. WARMING CONDITIONS WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN
WITH A MIX OF SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST THURSDAY 17 DEC 2015...A FRONT HAS
JUST MOVED ONSHORE AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...BUT ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GALES
TO MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT FREQUENT STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW AREA OF THE COASTAL WATERS FROM GOLD BEACH
NORTH. MORE FRONTS WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
-JRS/BPN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM PST THU DEC 17 2015/
DISCUSSION...I'LL FOCUS ON TWO MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT-TERM.
THESE INCLUDE THE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND THE HEAVY RAIN IMPACTING THE COAST.
FIRST...SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES AS AN ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER MOVES IN BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT. ISOLATED POCKETS OF BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
STILL EXIST IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS SISKIYOU SUMMIT ALONG INTERSTATE
5. FORTUNATELY...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THAT AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...AT LEAST UNTIL TEMPERATURES RISE TO
ABOVE-FREEZING. FURTHER EAST...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
CASCADES ABOVE 5000 FEET INCLUDING THE HIGHEST SPOTS OF HIGHWAYS
140...230...AND 62 BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN LATE THIS MORNING. MOVING
EVEN FURTHER EAST...COLD AIR IS BANKED AGAINST THE CASCADES AND
THESE AREAS WON'T CHANGE TO RAIN UNTIL LATE MORNING...AND SNOW IS
FALLING ALONG HIGHWAY 97 NEAR CHEMULT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 28
DEGREES. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG HIGHWAY
97 BEFORE THE RAIN STARTS. MOVING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD KLAMATH
FALLS...MOUNT SHASTA CITY...AND MODOC COUNTY...LESS PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED BUT SOME MAY FALL AS FREEZING RAIN AS THE WARM LAYER MOVES
OVER THAT AREA. FOR MORE DETAILS ON ALL THESE WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS
SEE WSWMFR.
SECOND...THE HEAVY RAIN. A PLUME OF 1.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IS IMPINGING UPON THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST AND AREAS JUST INLAND...CAUSING RIVER
RISES AND CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LANDSLIDES AS WELL AS SMALL
CREEK AND URBAN FLOODING. WE HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH AT
FFAMFR TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IMPACT. ADDITIONALLY...FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE AND THE SOUTH
FORK OF THE COQUILLE AT MYRTLE POINT...WHILE A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES
FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE COQUILLE. RIVERS SHOULD PEAK FRIDAY
MORNING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES AND BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE.
I SHOULD NOTE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST
TONIGHT...AND DATA SUPPORTS GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH. 850MB WINDS PEAK
NEAR 65KT WHICH SUPPORTS A HIGH WIND EVENT. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AT NPWMFR...AND IF THIS MORNING'S MODELS
MAINTAIN THIS KIND OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW...IT SEEMS A GOOD BET.
SHOWERY CONDITIONS ENSUE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. OF NOTE...MODELS ARE SLOW TO MOVE THE FRONTAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM LAKEVIEW AND ALTURAS...AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS THERE ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON ANOTHER HEALTHY FRONTAL
SYSTEM, IN THE FORM OF A COLD OCCLUSION, MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVEL INITIALLY IN THE 2500-3500 FOOT RANGE ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ONLY TO 3000-4000 FEET. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ALONG THE COAST LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE IN THE 0.50-1.5" RANGE,
WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 6KFT FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD.
EXPECT 3 TO 6 INCHES BETWEEN 3000 AND 6000 FEET ON THE WEST SIDE.
WINDS MAY KICK UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE
SHASTA VALLEY AT WEED AND IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VERY WET
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHAT THERE IS NOT
AGREEMENT ON IS SNOW LEVELS AND EXACTLY HOW WET. THE GFS BASED
GUIDANCE SURGES SNOW LEVELS UP TO 8KFT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD,
WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THEM ONLY TO ABOUT 6KFT, HIGHEST TUESDAY
MORNING. THE DECISION FOR TODAY'S FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO SIDE
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS, AS BOTH MODELS INDICATE A STRONG JET STREAM
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA FEEDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
GFS INDICATES SLIGHT RIDGING OFFSHORE INTO THE COAST, WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS SLIGHT TROUGHING. WITH SUCH STRONG ZONAL FLOW, AND
CLIMATOLOGY AND EL NINO COMPOSITES FAVORING MORE TROUGHING IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA, A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF WAS TAKEN, ESPECIALLY FOR
DAY 7-8. THIS IS ALSO WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REFLECTED. THE
MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION IS ALSO ACTIVE, IN PHASE 4, WHICH
FAVORS NEAR TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. WE WILL NEED TO BE WARY OF
ANY TREND TOWARD THE GFS, AS IT WOULD PROBABLY MEAN LOTS OF WEST
SIDE FLOODING DUE TO RAIN ON SNOW WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IF IT WERE TO VERIFY. ENSEMBLES FAVOR MORE OF A
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP SNOW LEVELS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY. PRELIMINARY CONSENSUS INDICATES AN ADDITIONAL 5-10
INCHES OF RAIN IN AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH 3-6 FEET OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6KFT.
TRAVELERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FORECAST UPDATES IF THEY
WILL BE GOING ON ROADWAYS ABOVE ABOUT 3500 FEET DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD, AS WE EXPECT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS, AT TIMES.
AN EARLY LOOK AT THE 24TH AND 25TH INDICATES A MORE SHOWERY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500
FEET. BTL
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR ORZ030-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ORZ029>031.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
ORZ029-030.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR ORZ021-022.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ORZ021>024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
ORZ027-028.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR CAZ085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ084-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ082.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
CAZ081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ083.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ356.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
PZZ350-370.
BPN/DW/NSK/BTLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
602 AM PST THU DEC 17 2015
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW WILDERVILLE 42.46N 123.49W
12/17/2015 M1.00 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
1.00 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 8 PM PST
WEDNESDAY. OBSERVER LOCATION 17 MI WEST OF
TOWN.
&&
JRSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
842 AM PST THU DEC 17 2015
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NW HARBOR 42.05N 124.27W
12/17/2015 M2.21 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
904 AM PST THU DEC 17 2015
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0903 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
12/17/2015 M2.59 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER
8AM TO 8AM OBSERVER LOCATION 5 MI N OF
BROOKINGS NEAR CAPE FERRELO.
&&
SBNPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 AM PST THU DEC 17 2015
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0904 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE PISTOL RIVER 42.26N 124.39W
12/17/2015 M1.53 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER
OVERNIGHT
&&
SBNThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A spotter 2NNW Sitkum reported that Brummit Creek was 2.75 feet over the bank. No water in buildings at that point, but it was still raining heavily.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 609992.